State of the Senate

[Vosem]

Republicans are strongly favored to pick up three seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and reasonably favored to pick up three more in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Four races look like pure tossups, Kansas (actually held by the Republicans), Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina; KS and NC tilt very slightly Republican, while CO and IA are the opposite, though the Democrats have been a running an inept campaign in Iowa; the Republicans have been doing this in Kansas. Beyond that, Democrats are reasonably favored to hold Michigan and New Hampshire, while Republicans are reasonably favored to hold Georgia and Kentucky, with races beyond that largely safe for both parties. The likeliest result right now is R+7 (a Republican majority of 52-48), but anything between R+3 and R+11 is easy to make a realistic map for, and by including 'safe' races where a slight (say, 1%) chance exists for the other party you can get a result anywhere between D+1 and R+15.

Republicans are mildly favored to take the Senate, in other words, largely on the strength of Romney states, but are having trouble expanding into Obama territory and their takeover of the Senate is as yet by no means guaranteed.