As a part time native, I can say Poliquin in 16 is going to be based on how he actually does and not party. If Collins and Snowe can be continuously re elected, even in Dem wave years, just by doing a respectable job by the whole state, then Poliquin can definitely win in just the more conservative district.
Yeah, seeing whether new, clearly-competent incumbents in unfavorable districts will be able to establish themselves will be very interesting -- people like Dold, Graham, and Poliquin. It's definitely doable -- Kirkpatrick and Peterson and Valadao prove it -- but that does not necessarily mean it will be done.
