So, DS, let's take a look at the presidential elections 2004-2012; specifically at incumbents running for reelection in states voting the opposite party for President. There were seven such figures in 2004; 6/7 were reelected (all but Tom Daschle). In 2008, there were eleven such Senators; 6/11 were reelected. In 2012, there were six Senators like this; 5/6 were reelected. Clearly, when you are an incumbent running in such a state, while no guarantee you're clearly favored for reelection.
Or we can stop cherry-picking data to show what we want it to, and just say that Johnson is, while too far to the right to ever be comfortably entrenched in Wisconsin, is a skilled campaigner and fundraiser and while it is unclear who his opponent will be, he will have a competitive race.
Unlike in say, PA and IL, there's absolutely no reason why a Democratic voter for president would cross over and vote for Johnson. In fact, it's the opposite. R president voters would be more likely to cross over, particularly if Feingold runs. So Johnson's best hope is the Republican nominee carrying Wisconsin and dragging him over the finish line. A pretty tall order.
This is absolutely impossible to say without foreknowledge of who Johnson's opponent is. If Johnson can paint him sufficiently negatively, there's no reason he can't peel off folks voting Democratic for President. (I also hesitate to call Wisconsin anything better than Leans D at the national level; it is slightly to the left of the nation, but they have a very popular Republican state government, and it's even possible an R-WI will be the presidential nominee. They may also differentiate between voting Republican for President and for a 'local' Republican like Johnson or Walker).
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