Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
|
|
« on: July 07, 2016, 11:01:35 PM » |
|
"Trumpism" as in support for the policies Trump espouses? Obviously they're not going to die off; they've been around for decades and at least in some form they're going to stick around for the foreseeable future, though generational trends suggest that within 10-15 years they will be relegated to permanent minority status. (A candidate with Trump's views, but without Trump's numerous hang-ups, could've done very well indeed in 2016, though getting past the Republican primary would've been tough. 2020 is probably still on the table. Past that, unless the worldwide anti-globalization movement actually manages to radically change the status quo, the future looks bleak indeed for them). First World youth, in America and western Europe, on the left and on the right, support globalization to a far greater extent than their ancestors, and they are unable -- and will continue to be unable -- to conceive of a world without it.
"Trumpism" as in the style of campaigning Trump uses, with large-scale rallies, little fundraising, and media domination? This is a style that can only work for a politician with near-100% name recognition who enters the race. Such comes along only very infrequently, and the Trump experience will make others less inclined to try it, especially if they do not align with Trump ideologically. So that dies as soon as Trump is not himself physically a candidate.
"Trumpism" as in the cult of personality around Trump himself? This one is tough. There are about a third, perhaps a little more, of the party that totally unquestioningly buy into Trump's shtick. If the election is a comic McGovern/Mondale style defeat most of that will peel off, but if it's not meaningfully worse than McCain and Romney most of that will stick by him. Trump may be able to play a role in endorsing candidates he likes for minor office and being a valuable surrogate in 2020 (or running again himself). This would survive for about 10 years or so after the 2016 election, but would struggle to gain new adherents and would eventually simply atrophy (or disappear suddenly upon the man's death). So...we are unlikely to see a die-off right after the election, but in the somewhat longer run this will die, too.
In summary...voted no, but "Trumpism" is a mixture of several different phenomena (political positions, a campaigning style, and adoration for a certain person) that do not necessarily need to be connected to each other. One looks certain to survive in some form, one looks certain to die immediately, and the last has an uncertain future but will probably continue to exist in some way in the near-term.
|