Hasn't polling shown that, while many won't vote, significantly more choose Clinton than Trump? My second choice (as I think I've stated many times) is Clinton, not Trump.
More Republicans are like Seriously and Santander not RINO Tom or Vosem.
I think that's a bit of a false dichotomy -- there tends to be a spectrum. Neither group is a majority, although the former is a good deal larger.
If the Republican Primary tells us anything...the former is about ~75% of the Republican voter base.
Nah. It tells us that the former is approximately 35% of the party. It tells us there's another faction (the types that were all for Carson in November, and supported Cruz in Iowa and through most of the primaries) that's around 25%, and that the RINO Tom/Vosem vote is maybe another 25% (keeping in mind that it was never united throughout the primary season). Another 15% are capable of swinging or don't seem to clearly fit into those three groups.
The other thing to keep in mind is that the three-way divide is a product of the 2016 presidential primary and was never clearly exhibited before, nor has it clearly shown itself in many congressional primaries (the Ellmers/Brannon/Holding race excepted, I guess). Considering the first group is rapidly shrinking demographically and doesn't have too many prominent politicians who adhere to it, I don't know how useful this sort of analysis is for the future.
Unless a very prominent mistake is made (doubtful), or Trump surges into a near-tie (possible), I really doubt there'll be much deflation at all before Election Day, and even then I don't think it'll approach the levels seen by Nader 2000 in a close race (who fell from 5-7% to 3%).
