Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Vosem]

With so many Democrats and only one Republican, is getting 15-20% and a spot in the runoff (to be killed, I know) too much to ask for?

This district voted 83/14 Obama/Romney, and then 84/11 Clinton/Trump. So 15% is probably out of reach; although with so many Democrats I'm not sure that necessarily means a spot in the runoff is unrealistic, though it's definitely unlikely.

[Vosem]

Estes up 62-35 in Barber's 1st precinct

Barber was 82-13 Trump, so this is a 42-point swing assuming Barber County as a whole is 62-35.

[Vosem]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

He lost the early vote in both, yes, but I wouldn't say he got massacred. The early vote was about 6-7% more D friendly than the eventual results, IIRC.

If that's reflected here, assuming what we have is representative of all the early vote, we should see a 0-1% Thompson win

Could be a barn-burner, folks.

[Vosem]

Not sure Thompson could do as well in a non-special election environment ("special elections are special"), but based off this performance he'd be a stellar gubernatorial or other statewide position contender for the Democrats. This district is more Republican than Kansas as a whole.

[Vosem]

Yeah, the Democrats are winning the house in 2018. Anyone who disputes that after a result like this is delusional

This is like projecting that Clinton was doomed after 1994 or Obama after 2010. There'll be a different electorate and different issues.