Rob Portman of 2018

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Baldwin/Nelson/Stabenow all work as answers, but I don't think they're really top-tier targets for the GOP at all (except maybe Nelson, if only because Rick Scott seems to want to have a go at him and he'll have lots of money for that effort). Jon Tester, who's in a seemingly-competitive state but who Republicans don't even have a candidate against yet, seems like the best answer.

I continue not to understand why everyone here is convinced Mandel is a bad candidate against Brown; he's got multiple double-digit statewide victories under his belt and came within 6 points in 2012, before Ohio moved right in pretty meaningful ways. I don't think he'll win, mostly because I think 2018 will be a pretty Democratic year, but I'm pretty confident that he'd be favored outright in a neutral environment. In a polarized environment in a large state people will be more inclined to vote party than they might be against Tester/Heitkamp/Manchin (the first of which I think is certainly less endangered than Brown). Democrats also haven't won any victories by double-digits in Ohio (which is what I think being the Portman of 2018 would require) since...2006.

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^Tester isn't going to be the next Rob Portman. Unlike OH in 2015/2016, most people don't even consider the MT Senate race competitive right now and believe he is heavily favored (or safe). While it's true that there is no obvious candidate yet, I think the party will field a competent Republican in the end (hopefully Rosendale or Olszewski). MT is way too polarized for Tester to win easily, and he doesn't have as much crossover appeal as Heitkamp and Manchin.

Actually, I think the party that wins the OH Senate race will also win in MT, but who knows.

I agree in the sense that I think ultimately Tester and Brown will both be reelected (the latter mainly due to usual anti-presidential midterm effects), but I'm also pretty confident that Mandel is the best recruit the NRSC has found this cycle and in general is one of the strongest candidates on the (pretty wide) OHGOP bench, who Democrats have been swinging at unsuccessfully for most of a decade. Which makes this forum's continued belief that he's terrible seem very, very odd.

Definitely most people consider a Democrat in a Trump+24 state vulnerable. Whether that's correct or not is the point of this thread.

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^Tester isn't going to be the next Rob Portman. Unlike OH in 2015/2016, most people don't even consider the MT Senate race competitive right now and believe he is heavily favored (or safe). While it's true that there is no obvious candidate yet, I think the party will field a competent Republican in the end (hopefully Rosendale or Olszewski). MT is way too polarized for Tester to win easily, and he doesn't have as much crossover appeal as Heitkamp and Manchin.

Actually, I think the party that wins the OH Senate race will also win in MT, but who knows.

I agree in the sense that I think ultimately Tester and Brown will both be reelected (the latter mainly due to usual anti-presidential midterm effects), but I'm also pretty confident that Mandel is the best recruit the NRSC has found this cycle and in general is one of the strongest candidates on the (pretty wide) OHGOP bench, who Democrats have been swinging at unsuccessfully for most of a decade. Which makes this forum's continued belief that he's terrible seem very, very odd.

Definitely most people consider a Democrat in a Trump+24 state vulnerable. Whether that's correct or not is the point of this thread.

I always though Kasich was the strongest candidate? Isn't his approval rating really high over there?

Certainly, but Kasich's not really interested in anything less than President at this point. I'm comparing Mandel to the other Republican Senate candidates recruited (like Evan Jenkins or the several random congresscritters in Indiana they're trying to sweep aside in favor of Curtis Hill).