Early voting, absentee requests & statistics

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So, when is today's CO vote dump coming in ?

Let's see if Dems continue to close strong there, like yesterday.

They didn't report El Paso County, so the day wasn't as good for Democrats as it seems.

This morning's report will probably have very little new material, but this afternoon and especially tomorrow morning will be a pretty good look at what the electorate will actually be.  Frankly, I think what is at stake at this point is the gubernatorial race.

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Here are some raw numbers out this morning for Colorado:

Republicans lead by eight percentage points, 40 to 32, over Democrats.  That is a roughly 112,000 vote advantage.

R: 558,000
D: 446,000
I: 359,000

I think this afternoon’s report will be much more interesting—and telling, too. 

I still think that the final tally rounds out to somewhere between 1.8 million (2010 turnout) and 2 million.  That means that we might be at or even over 75% at this point.  That doesn’t mean that Democrats won’t dominate the final quarter of the electorate and pull the final number down to R+4 or R+5, but I don’t think that is likely and I still don’t think that will get Udall across the line.

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Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

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Colorado 11/3 AM update:

Total votes: 1,372,543 (70-75% of expected electorate)

R: 556,111
D: 444,556
U: 371,382

Republicans have an 8.1% lead over Democrats.  2010 was R+5.9.  Here you go:

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_c332c44a77bd4fe0ab4173bd9c8d2c08.pdf

Is that with all counties reporting 100% ?

I have no idea.  There were 20,000 El Paso County votes that weren't counted over the weekend, and I don't know if this includes those tabulations. 

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So basically the dems are guaranteed to get it down to r+6?

No. Shaving down two full points with three-fourths of the electorate already in would take a really strong Democratic finish. It is entirely possible, but not at all guaranteed.

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Colorado 11/3 PM update

Total votes: 1463766

R: 590,653 (41.3%) (2010: 39.5%)
D: 469,900 (32.1%) (2010: 33.6%)
U: 403,213 (27.6%) (2010: 26.9%)

Total Republican lead: 8.2%, over 120,000 votes.

Nate Cohn tweeted an update, and apparently we’re now at over 1.5 million counted, and it is still R+8.1.  Compare that to 2010’s R+5.9.

I think we’re probably at something like 80 to 85 percent of the electorate.  You might get another 300,000 or 400,000 late tonight and tomorrow.  But the electorate should look something like R+6 to R+8, exceeding the 2010 gap that Republicans held.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/786786_3312db2753044462ace3834b8d6e536d.pdf

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We're definitely hitting at least 2 million votes if in 2010 we hit 1.77 million. Excellent news that unafilliateds make up more of the electorate than in 2010.

We won't even get close to 2 million.

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El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

Maybe. I mean, Denver and Boulder counties are staying up late processing ballots and it's possible that every other clerk just went home at 5:00. My hunch is that the number will be in the high 7s until polls close and the final number will be in the 6s.

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El Paso is sitting on ballots according to sources.

Maybe. I mean, Denver and Boulder counties are staying up late processing ballots and it's possible that every other clerk just went home at 5:00. My hunch is that the number will be in the high 7s until polls close and the final number will be in the 6s.

Are they feeding these ballots into the optical readers (or whatever they are using) as they get them or do they have to wait until Election Day in Colorado to process?

They are processed as they come in.

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CO #earlyvote update: Rs lead down to +7.3 or 39.6/32.3 out of 1.6M votes was 8.0 as of Sat.

In 2010, if I'm not wrong, Rs lead was 5.9

All correct.

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Lunchtime CO update: GOP leads by 126k and 7.7 pts.

Only at 1.64 million total votes.

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So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

That is the in-person vote, not the Election Day vote.

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So to summarize all this Colorado data for the less informed, are things looking brighter for (1) Gardner, (2) Udall, or (3) either one depending on one's hackishness level?

Things haven't actually changed much at all for the last week. The turnout numbers are better for the GOP than expected, but there are still three voting hours left and things could change quickly. Udall could still win but he probably won't. As it's been for a while.

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So if the early vote is 75% at R+7 and the election day vote is 25% at D+4, that gives us about R +4-5. I think that's enough to save Hick and the house at least.

That is the in-person vote, not the Election Day vote.

Is there much of a difference?

In-person votes are not mail-in votes, which are dropped off at a voting center or mailed to the clerk. Most votes today are not in-person, but rather mailed, do the Democrats' in-person advantage isn't nearly what they need.