You're overestimating, my friend. Remember when the "hard deadline" was last August?
The obstacles here are well-defined. Last summer, they weren't.
This is why I think health care reform has a better chance of passing now than before. Ideally we should have a single payer system, but it looks like this "reform package" is the best we can get. Its better than nothing and it should cover 30 million americans that are now uninsured.
The only problem is that republicans may attempt to throw in stupid legislation as a delaying tactic, or may attempt to strip out as many things as possible.