Will Friday's data show job gains in December?

[CARLHAYDEN]

From what I've read, estimates are between +50,000 and -50,000. Do you think we'll see the first job gains in something like two years on Friday morning?

The labor department has been playing games with the data (which is wildly at variance with other data, particularly ADP).

[CARLHAYDEN]

This month's jobs report is a reason why you can't just base anything on one month when you're dealing with statistical estimates.

Next month is the baseline month for the year, so unless the government is interested in really faking the numbers, we should get a realistic picture for once (no seasonal adjustments and the birth/death model, which I think is seriously screwed up, is not in the picture).

Weekly hours worked were unchanged, which brings into question last month's rise there.

660,000 dropped out of the labor force again.  Not good after a month where it appeared like things were turning in that number too.

Interesting that Europe, Canada and the US all showed pretty bad jobs report today.

Full report here:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

It looks like a needed adjustment in the January estimating formula will be implemented.  The problem is that the adjustment may be too generous, artificially reducing the unemployment rate.

If this happens, the February numbers can be really scary!

BTW, the number of workers removed from the labor force by bls in the period from December of 08 to December of 09: 3,545,000!

The number of persons admitted by bls to have been unemployed 27 weeks or longer during the same period has increased by: 3,618,000!

Oh, and the U-6 percentage increased to 17.1% in December from 16.4% in November of 09!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Nope. Productivity was like 9% in Q3. That will depress job creation for a bit.

Actually, the increase in productivity was 9%.

Essentially what happened is that the least productive workers were laid off, causing part of the productivity gain, and the continuing employees were pressured into an increase in productivity.

The latter cannot last.

Just watch Gone with the Wind, and focus on the scene where Miss Scarlet whips the horse one time too many when fleeing Atlanta.