US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I can tell you right now that Critz is finished;  PA-12 was an blatant gerrymander for Murtha; the Republicans can easliy just throw in the more conservative parts of Westmoreland County that were meticulously avoided in the hopes of protecting Murtha.

Just a little reminder that Republicans had complete control of the redistricting process. PA-12 was drawn to primary Murtha with fellow Democrat Frank Mascara, who was eliminated, while PA-18 was drawn specifically to elect Tim Murphy, one of the Republicans who drew the map.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

PA-4 was preserved the way it was in the 1990s at Hart's request, which isn't the same thing. She resisted the legislature's wish to make it a safer seat for Republicans because she prized her cross-party appeal and thought it would be an advantage to get her to the Senate after Specter retired in 2010. So it's more marginal than it needed to be, and we got Altmire.

I wonder if it would be possible to do the Murtha/Mascara trick again, this time with Altmire and Critz.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The connection in this version of PA-4 has a much greater width than a highway. 

Have you been able to use the App successfully? If so, I'd really like to see a map of two districts with ~700,000 people, one that concentrates Dems in Pittsburgh and the river valleys without sloughing off too many Dem precincts to Murphy, and one which links the valley towns both above and below Pittsburgh with Johnstown. That little spur in PA-8 connects towns just a few miles apart. I contend that this can't be done across much greater distances like that between Johnstown and the Ohio border. We are at an impasse until one of us draws a map.

Here's what I did with Western Pennsylvania.



Note: I chose districts whose colors contrast with the colors on the partisan data layer. It makes it easier to know what I'm doing when I can tell the difference between an uber-Republican precinct and a precinct I happened to put in the 4th district.

District 14 (Gold): Not much is changed, I simply took a few Democratic precincts from Murphy's district. 68.10% Obama.
District 4/12 (Yellow): Both Altmire and Critz live in the district. It basically combines the most Democratic areas from the current 4th and 12th districts. 51.95% Obama.
District 3 (Green): Mike Kelly lives in Butler, so the new district shores him up by cutting out Erie. 57.74% McCain.
District 18 (Light Blue): Not much has changed here, either. It may look a bit different, but the core of the district is unchanged. 56.40% McCain.
District 5 (Orange): Glenn Thompson might not be happy about the fact that I put Erie in his district to shore up Kelly. I might go back and trade some territory with Kelly's district. 50.50% McCain.
District 9 (Gray): Shuster takes in Republican areas of Cambria county and loses territory to the east. 56.86% McCain.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Where does Altmire live?

McCandless Township, Allegheny County (in the yellow district). I specifically included the entire township to make sure I got his home in the district. If I knew which precinct he lived in, I would only include what was necessary.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I'm not sure it's worth it. My district already includes New Kensington. Lower Burrell is 55% McCain, and Derry is 53% McCain. The only towns along the northern tier of Westmoreland County that voted for Obama are Vandergrift, East Vandergrift, and Avonmore, and some of the precincts that would have to be included are well over 60% McCain. While the same is true in western Washington County, those precincts are less populous and allow for easy access to places like Smith Township, Chartiers Township, and Canonsburg, some of the most Democratic areas of Washington County. Critz lost in the Westmoreland County part of his district, but he carried Greene and Washington Counties. So if the goal is to pack Democrats, I don't see how including northern Westmoreland County will help.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I realize the folly of using Obama numbers, particularly in Western Pennsylvania. I was hoping the Critz numbers would convince you. 47% in Westmoreland County, compared to 53% in Washington and 52% in Greene.

Even so, in 2000 Gore barely broke 50% in the northern tier from Lower Burrell to St. Clair Township. I don't have the Kerry numbers, but I suspect they're worse since he underperformed compared to Gore in Westmoreland County.

I might take another look at PA-5 later tonight.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Wwll, this is what happens, when you have no rules to leash your mouse.  

The first poster to guess in which precinct Congressman Altmire in PA-04 (D) lives in just by looking at the lines of the map along (look at the SW PA zoom at the bottom of this post) using inferential logic, gets to pick my signature on my posts for a week. As a hint, I deliberately put him in his own CD, rather than having in PA-18, just to eliminate any temptation on his part to take a crack at running against Murphy in PA-18 (since Murphy's CD is slightly more Dem, and he had about half of Murphy's territory in the current map.

McCandless Township, Ward 1, District 4, Allegheny County?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Wwll, this is what happens, when you have no rules to leash your mouse.  

The first poster to guess in which precinct Congressman Altmire in PA-04 (D) lives in just by looking at the lines of the map along (look at the SW PA zoom at the bottom of this post) using inferential logic, gets to pick my signature on my posts for a week. As a hint, I deliberately put him in his own CD, rather than having in PA-18, just to eliminate any temptation on his part to take a crack at running against Murphy in PA-18 (since Murphy's CD is slightly more Dem, and he had about half of Murphy's territory in the current map.

McCandless Township, Ward 1, District 4, Allegheny County?

You sir are indeed correct, and get to pick my signature for a week. Well done! 

Normally I would pick something suitably sadistic, but under the circumstances, I think condolences to Congresswoman Giffords and everyone who was affected by the attack in Tucson would be most appropriate. Change your avatar to D-AZ for the duration.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I don't follow you. Of course the exact numbers will change when the PA census comes out, but as seen below, on Dave's "new population estimates" I can get a very safe 2-2 southwest, with Doyle at 63 Obama, Critz at 56 Obama, Murphy at 57 McCain, Shuster at 60 McCain, and Altmire gone...

...and Mike Kelly (R, PA-3) drawn into Murphy's district. He lives in Butler.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

What's wrong with cooks?

Crook, perhaps?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I say they should pass it and let the courts decide how to interprete it.

Seconded.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Showdown-expected-in-PA-House-over-new-Congressional-map.html


Brady and U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle, D-Allegheny, in exchange for concessions in that map that helped them, said they would round up votes to pass it. And now they were hearing from House Republican leaders in Harrisburg that they needed more votes, because going into this weekend, and today, the map lacks the House votes to pass it.

The way Capitolwire's Peter DeCoursey sees it, two of the four most liberal urban members of the U.S. House are lobbying their fellow urban Democrats to pass a congressional redistricting that masses the largest number of urban Democratic voters into the smallest number of districts.

Why? Because it helps Doyle and Brady - giving Brady more white Democrats along the Delaware river, protecting him against future black primary challenger. (Folks who know how beloved Brady is among African American voters may question that theory but it's interesting nonetheless.)

As if they need any help.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fixed.