France 2012: the official thread

[RodPresident]

President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva said that he wants a woman to be next President of French Republic. He said this at a meeting with Secretary-General of PS, Martine Aubry, at World Social Forum, in Dakar, Senegal.

[RodPresident]

Now, PS can go to a crazy contest. Delanöe can go back to game, while Hollande and Aubry are gaining strength (even before this scandal, they could defeat DSK). Royal, with seek of revenge, can go even to a independent candidacy to destroy PS chances. It looks by now, that Mr. Sarko can get to run-off with Panzergirl.
My dream would be Royal going to the way of her family and making a surprise endorsement to Marine. It would give legitimacy to her with mainstream politicians.

[RodPresident]

2007 Bayrou voters look that are going now for Borloo, Villepin (who votes Villepin not voted Sarkozy in 2007) and Marine. They want a new thing in politics

[RodPresident]

Chevenement can take some Marine voters because his appeal is the same, but less xenophobic and controversial than FN. If he goes well, he can go to 2002 levels or few more, but he drains voters from FN and PS.

[RodPresident]

Only way to Hollande lose this thing maybe a late surge by Bayrou who goes to run-off and win with support of right-wingers and anti-establshiment people. If he gets in position to take a place in run-off, Villepin would drop-out only to humillate Sarkozy.