Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[RodPresident]

IBOPE polled the Federal District for the local race and the national race. Interesting results:

Local government: R. Rollemberg (PSB) 60% x J. Frejat (PR) 40%
Presidential: Aécio 69% x Dilma 31%

In 2010 Dilma had 53% in the runoff against Serra, Serra had 47%, so if true this would be a 22% swing from the PT to the PSDB. In the 1st round Aecio had 36% there and Dilma 23%. Marina also had 36%, so it's clear Aecio is gaining a huge chunk of her votes there. If those numbers are true and remain steady, Aecio would be reducing the 8 million vote difference that separates him from Dilma by at least some 400 thousand votes. Considering the Federal District has just under 1.9 million voters, this would be a significant number.

This is result of Agnelo's heavy unpopularity. Only way of Dilma recovering is doing some undercover compromise with Roriz-Arruda machine where they give Dilma votes in their places in exchange of PT machine working for Frejat.

[RodPresident]

Actually, Aecio was highly successful on rallying the older, center-left side of the party embodied by FHC, José Serra, Andrea Matarazzo, Barjas Negri, etc. In fact, I believe that, if Aecio is elected, some names from this faction will have key cabinet posts (Serra is a lock). He'll also explore younger names from this faction of the party, like yet another rising star, Floriano Pesaro.

Well, Aecio had to move toward centre-left in order to win the election.

Btw, who's Serra's Senate substitute?

Serra's substitute is veteran tucano congressman José Anibal, who had some clashes with Serra before. I think that Aécio believes that is better to keep Serra close than letting him to have his own side show on Senate.
Pesaro is a São Paulo's councilman who served in FHC government and got elected to Congress with Cardoso's endorsement at TV. He can serve in a social position of cabinet.

[RodPresident]

50.99% Dilma
49.01% Aécio
95.35% counted
6.640.430 to count
Dilma's advantage of 1.990.030 votes...
I can project Dilma's victory now...

[RodPresident]

With Pimentel as governor, PT can solidify hold in Minas getting more strength. With São Paulo's performance, local PSDB will try to reclaim back national PSDB control. Santa Catarina, Aécio's best state, have a pro-Dilma governor (Raimundo Colombo, PSD, former DEM) and suffred with violence's troubles. Now, PT has to recover Haddad's image in São Paulo. And I believe it, as Haddad will try to keep alliance with Maluf's PP and Kassab's PSD and with PMDB, as Skaf probably will leave it and Chalita is going to live in NYC, that will give a large advantadge in free-air TV time.

[RodPresident]

What took place in Alagoas and Sergipe? Aecio got completely smashed there and lost double digit or near double digit swings from 2010.  Same for Rio Grande do Norte and Piauí.  All of them arefrom the same region of the Northeast.  Why is the Northeast so much more anti-PSDB than 2010 ?

In Alagoas, PSDB governor Vilela didn't ran for nothing and Renan Calheiros Jr. won governorship in 1st round. In Rio Grande do Norte, Serra had then elected-governor Rosalba Ciarlini's endorsement and Dilma had support from a weak incumbent, while now governor-elect Robinson Faria (PSD) and Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB) endorsed her. In Sergipe, governor-elect Jackson Barreto (PMDB) worked for Dilma and Mayor of Aracaju João Alves didn't put much strength. And Piaui elected Wellington Dias (PT) for a 3rd term. I believe that is because Northeast needs Federal government support, then with pro-Dilma governors, there are massive swings to her.
And Alagoas was Serra's only state in Lula's 2002 first victory.

[RodPresident]

This election seems to also be the victory for Datafolha.  Their last poll of 52-48 was pretty much on target.

I hope that they poll Bahia statewide election in 2018. IBOPE made horrible job there.