That state is a bit of a mystery. It may be that I'm reading something that isn't there, but it seems to me that when/if an elector threatens a month and a half out that he is considering abstaining or not casting his vote for the candidate he has pledged to vote for, it looks like his candidate is in a pretty good position. But I could be reading too in-depth.
I think Bush might be up a couple, I don't know quite by his 2000 spread. Gore torpedoed his own boat in that state by openly attacking the coal industry and the 2nd amendment. Kerry won't do either, won't come close. Won't even touch coal with a nine-foot pole and will be so pro-gun when he goes into WV he'll probably have all sorts of guns strapped on him when he goes around. Cap guns, water guns, pistols, Uzis, etc.
I do think there are traits Bush has that West Virginians admire, like his straight forwardness, resolute position on the war, etc. I don't know, it'll be close.
