A year is a long time in politics, but I don't see how he recovers back to a steady ~50% approval rating. He may hit that mark again, but remaining constantly there or thereabouts looks pretty unlikely as we stand now. We all know the economy, and the unemployment number (how it's trending, and if any real progress has been made) will determine the election, and with it forecast not to improve that drastically between now and Nov 2012, he pretty much has no chance.
He's been very lucky to have evaded the upper 30s for approval for this long, but I think the floor has finally dropped out of him, and people are finally fed up.
Imagine if this was George Bush - his approval would be further tanked. Obama is one lucky guy, and saying he's lucky with an approval rating at 39% for today speaks volumes.
Your pronouncements and predictions are baseless. Obama is doing a decent job with what he's been given and there is a certain reasonable section of society that realizes that. If he has people like Bachmann trying to send the US government into default its all the guy can do to keep the country afloat.
The reason approval ratings at this point are almost worthless is all you need is an uptick in the economy and a dip in unemployment and Obama's numbers will go up. That is a fact. Now I KNOW you can't predict what the economy will be doing a year from now. I know Republicans hope and pray America won't be doing well but the rest of us actually hope things will improve.
The other problem is if you disapprove of Obama who are you going to vote for? None of the Republicans have said how they intend to create more jobs than Obama. Oh, I almost forgot, they have advocated for even more tax breaks for the rich.
The truth is this far out no one knows. Its wide open.
It's not baseless at all. I said from day 1 I joined this forum that the unemployment number and trend will predict if he gets a second term. With economists saying it will stay above 8% makes it difficult for Obama. If it's exactly at 8% as we head into the election, I think he wins (The number is bad, but the trend is pretty strong). But 8.5%+ will be very difficult, and certainly impossible at 9%+ for him to win.
So when you see just 26% of people support his job on the economy, which is the number one issue of the electorate right now, it only compounds his problem and shows that he is very lucky indeed to be holding a ~40% approval rating. Remember, the approval rating is misleading as it takes into account potential biases (people perhaps not wanting to be seen as racist - even if they aren't - to pollsters, so will give him a more positive view than they would in the privacy of the voting booth, etc) and factors in his likeability as a person. I would venture to guess that Obama's true job approval is below 40%.....
Lastly, campaigns and candidates hardly matter in presidential elections. I'm getting sick of typing that sentence again and again.
Barring an economic miracle, the guy should begin packing his bag - and I don't mean for Martha's Vineyard....
