FiveThirtyEight releases more detailed state-by-state model

[Nichlemn]

No True Atlasian gives to inks about 538. It's statistical analysis for casual observers who can't do it themselves. To be a True Atlasian, you should be able to open the toplines of any poll and interpret it for yourself.

Pretty much all poll analysis in this forum consists of coming up with reasons to disregard polls with results you don't like while being accepting almost at face value any poll with a result you do like. Also, not really caring about the polling average.

[Nichlemn]

It's interesting to see how close many of their Projected Vote Share estimates are to simple polling averages: the difference in Louisiana is 0.1%, in Michigan it's 0.3%, in North Carolina it is also 0.1%.

If this is the case, what value does State Fundamentals really provide?

Their primary function is in races where there hasn't been much polling, and for when election day is far away.