CNN An 8.8-magnitude earthquake has struck Japan

[GMantis]

International Atomic Energy Agency update on Facebook

[GMantis]

Beet, they are already saying no risk in the US:  http://www.komonews.com/news/local/117860469.html

but that's no risk based on what has happened so far, not what could happen.  I wouldn't discount the map beet posted

You should.

discount it based on what, exactly, shua's blog link?  I used to write software for nuclear plants back in 94-95, and it was my understanding that a meltdown through the containment floor would send lethal doses of radiation 1000's of miles away.  I'm not sure the radiation levels of the map are correct, but the west coast would have to be evacuated

Why would an underground steam explosion send more radioactive material (thousands of times more, according to you) in the air than an open reactor fire? Could you give some source to confirm these rather outlandish claim?

[GMantis]

Beet, they are already saying no risk in the US:  http://www.komonews.com/news/local/117860469.html

but that's no risk based on what has happened so far, not what could happen.  I wouldn't discount the map beet posted

You should.

discount it based on what, exactly, shua's blog link?  I used to write software for nuclear plants back in 94-95, and it was my understanding that a meltdown through the containment floor would send lethal doses of radiation 1000's of miles away.  I'm not sure the radiation levels of the map are correct, but the west coast would have to be evacuated

Why would an underground steam explosion send more radioactive material (thousands of times more, according to you) in the air than an open reactor fire? Could you give some source to confirm these rather outlandish claim?

The Russia explosion only spread 3% of the nuke fissionable material and the available byproducts into the environment.   Explosions aren’t very efficient of spreading nuclear material because youre basically blowing the reactor apart and stopping the fission process.

A meltdown through the containment floor, on the other hand, is a continuation of an uncontrolled fission process, WITH ALL ITS NASTY BYPRODUCTS.  Once it hits the water table, the steam will provide a path to the surface and the atmosphere.   

And the steam does not get worldwide distribution, nor would all of radioactive materials be aerosolized.   Once in the cooler air temperature, any steam will quickly condense.  I doubt if dumping deep in the Pacific would case that.

Not to mention that much of the radioactive material would be absorbed while traveling  between the water table and the surface.
There is also the question whether the reaction could continue for long when the material is in a dispersed state and not bundled together as in the reactor.

[GMantis]

Alarmist much Beet and jmfsct?

I'm simply relaying my training when I worked in nuke power plants in '94-95...which is probably more training than sum total of the rest of you yahoos, aside from muon.

the only action I have taken is to inform my wife back in Houston to keep the Excursion's fuel tank at least 3/4 full for the next week until this plays out

You would be better received if you actually gave some confirmation this supposed effects of a meltdown. I'm sorry, but your claims simply do not seem plausible

[GMantis]

Apparently, they've managed a cold shutdown of units 1, 2 and 3 and extinguished the fire at unit 4. Of course, if the integrity of unit 2 is compromised (as most likely it is) this will not prevent further leak of radiation, which in the immediate vicinity of the plant has reached 400 millisievert per hour. 500 millisievert can cause radiation sickness.

[GMantis]

The real long-term problem for the Japanese is not so much disasters as an unwillingness to abandon the liberal capitalism which clearly hasn't worked for them, and place the economy more firmly and fully under the direct control of the State.

Considering the result when it happened under the direct control of the state, Chernobyl, I doubt it.  With state control, the entire island of Honshu would probably be glowing in the dark by this point.

Actually, it was the lack of state control that caused the disaster, as the direct cause was an unsafe experiment carried out by the management of the plant without permission from higher-up regulators.
Of course the state was responsible for building such an unsafe reactor, but isn't the state also responsible for the high safety standards in reactors in the West and Japan?

[GMantis]

The real long-term problem for the Japanese is not so much disasters as an unwillingness to abandon the liberal capitalism which clearly hasn't worked for them, and place the economy more firmly and fully under the direct control of the State.

Considering the result when it happened under the direct control of the state, Chernobyl, I doubt it.  With state control, the entire island of Honshu would probably be glowing in the dark by this point.

Actually, it was the lack of state control that caused the disaster, as the direct cause was an unsafe experiment carried out by the management of the plant without permission from higher-up regulators.
Of course the state was responsible for building such an unsafe reactor, but isn't the state also responsible for the high safety standards in reactors in the West and Japan?

Well, the state was clearly responsible for the design of Chernobyl.

That's what I said.

[GMantis]

Apparently, the rating increase is pretty much bogus and simply Japan's way of showing that they're taking it seriously. Each individual reactor is on a 5-level but they're counting at 7 because there are so many.

The panic over this has really reached bizarre levels.

Yeah, even here people are buying iodine!