538 Model Megathread

[Thomas D]

Nate is getting salty.

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Matthew Dowd @matthewjdowd
How do sketchy states polls have more impact on "data" odds sites (like 538) in this election than actual early vote results?  Bizarre.


Nate Silver @NateSilver538
32s
Next time we'll try the tried-and-true method of making sh**t up as we go along.

[Thomas D]

Nate is under a lot of pressure.  He went 51 for 51 four years ago, and now his model is giving him numbers he know don't add up, and he's handcuffed.