UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

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The Guardian is reporting that Labour people at the count think the Lib Dems will win by 2000 or more.

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Lib Dem win confirmed.  Rubbish radio reception so I didn't pick up the exact numbers.

Good riddance Zac.

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The track record of "single issue" by-elections isn't great, is it?

Haltemprice & Howden 2008 turned into a ridiculous circus with no serious candidate opposing Davis's stance.  Davis won easily, of course, but did he really achieve anything in terms of the point he was trying to make?

Before that the next example would be the Unionist mass resignations over the Anglo-Irish Agreement and the by-elections in January 1986.  Unsurprisingly, in many constituencies those who actually supported the Agreement didn't want to be involved in the stunt and didn't bother, and in four of them the Unionists had to organise a fake candidate to stand against them.  And they lost Newry & Armagh to the SDLP.

Before that it seems that you have to go back to the Duchess of Atholl and appeasement in 1938, and she lost too.  Nor did it work out very well for George Lansbury in 1912.

(I'm not counting party switch by-elections like Clacton and Rochester & Strood a couple of years ago or Lincoln 1973.)

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Labour lost their deposit, which is kind of embarrassing.

Well it's never good to poll that low, but this is basically Labour's weakest part of London and the deposit was nearly lost at the 2010 GE even. Vote shares since 1997:

1997 12.6 2001 11.3 2005 9.5 2010 5.0 2015 12.3, 2016b 3.7

And for the main predecessor seat:

1983 7.1, 1987 7.1, 1992 5.8

There's a considerable history of Labour losing deposits in Lib Dem by-election victories in formerly Tory seats with little Labour presence: Newbury, Christchurch, Winchester, Romsey.  There are certainly things for Labour to worry about at the moment, but that a lot of their supporters (and, evidently, a number of members) voted tactically to beat Zac Goldsmith in a by-election in which Labour had no chance does not strike me as one of them.

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Jamie Reed (Lab, Copeland) has resigned to take up a new job at the Sellafield nuclear plant.

Historically strong Labour seat but with a fairly small majority these days; Cumbrian coast, including Sellafield and the large town of Whitehaven, and the western Lake District, including Keswick, Borrowdale, Buttermere and Wasdale.  Likely to be merged with Workington in the boundary review to form a single urban West Cumbria seat.

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Polling day for both Copeland and Stoke on Trent Central is 23 February.

7 candidates for Copeland:

Michael Guest (Independent)
Rebecca Hanson (Lib Dem)
Trudy Harrison (Con)
Roy Ivinson (Independent)
Jack Lenox (Green)
Fiona Mills (UKIP)
Gillian Troughton (Lab)

(I like the picture of Wast Water used to illustrate the council's byelection page, but it's not very representative of the parts of the constituency people live in...)

Ivinson stood in Workington in 2015 and apparently wants to stop global warming.  Guest is a Copeland councillor and according to a Cumbrian local paper is aiming to represent thise "dissatisfied with party politics".

10 candidates for Stoke Central:

Mohammed Akram (Independent)
Zulfiqar Ali (Lib Dem)
Jack Brereton (Con)
The Incredible Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Adam Colclough (Green)
Godfrey Davies (Christian People's Alliance)
Barbara Fielding (Independent)
David Furness (BNP)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP)
Gareth Snell (Lab)

The Tories are trying hard in Copeland (which is certainly the sort of seat you'd expect them to take in a General Election on current polling) and appear to be leaving Stoke Central (which isn't) to UKIP.  How much of a threat UKIP really are in Stoke I don't know...

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Alan "Howling Laud" Hope is still around and was the OMRLP candidate in the Richmond Park by-election.

They seem to have a small group of candidates who stand in by-elections geographically close to them. "The Incredible Flying Brick"'s real name is Nick Delves and he's a parish councillor in Kirk Ireton, Derbyshire, and has stood in a few by-elections before, and also in Derbyshire Dales in the 2010 general election.  (His parish council election was unopposed.)

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Polling day is today in Stoke on Trent Central and Copeland.  It's fair to say that the weather forecast is pretty bad in both; don't expect high turnouts.

Andrew Teale's previews for both by-elections are here.

The Stoke campaign has been rather more high profile, largely due to the antics of UKIP and their leader and candidate there, Paul Nuttall.  From a Labour perspective (more, in my case, an anti-Tory and anti-UKIP perspective) I'm rather more worried about Copeland, though, which is the sort of seat the Tories would expect to win in a General Election on current polling.

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Polling day is today in Stoke on Trent Central and Copeland.  It's fair to say that the weather forecast is pretty bad in both; don't expect high turnouts.

Andrew Teale's previews for both by-elections are here.

The Stoke campaign has been rather more high profile, largely due to the antics of UKIP and their leader and candidate there, Paul Nuttall.  From a Labour perspective (more, in my case, an anti-Tory and anti-UKIP perspective) I'm rather more worried about Copeland, though, which is the sort of seat the Tories would expect to win in a General Election on current polling.

Yeah it would be very likely the Tories would take Copeland in a general election held today. However this is a by-election where the composition of the government is not at risk (i.e. voting Labour in Copeland today will not let Corbyn become prime minister) and other more local issues like nuclear power and the hospital become the focal points.

Sitting governments almost always do badly in by-elections while oppositions usually do well, even very unpopular oppositions usually do ok. Incidentally if Labour narrowly hold the media will probably treat it like some kind of success, as expectations for Labour are rock bottom at present, when in reality a swing to the government in a by-election is actually a horrendous performance.

The bookies seem to think that the Tories are the favourites but I'm not so sure thy called Richmond Park wrong for example. Plus Labour's candidate in Copeland seems decent too (unlike their terrible one in Stoke).

Yes, people don't vote in by-elections like they do in general elections, but I'm not convinced this thing about the government not having gained a seat in a by-election since 1982 is that meaningful in this context: most oppositions were not polling as badly as Corbyn's Labour, so there weren't many comparable opportunities.

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The best comparisons are the Uxbridge and Beckenham by-elections in 1997 when the Tories were even further behind Labour than Labour are behind the Tories now. In Uxbridge, despite their dreadful poll ratings, the Tories got a decent sized swing towards them in Beckenham there was a moderate swing to Labour. If there is a swing to the Tories it is absolutely awful showing, if Labour manage to lose it then they have managed to do worse than the Tories at their nadir when they had only 165 MPs...

Those don't work very well precisely because the Tories only had 165 seats.  They'd just lost all the semi-marginals, comparable to Copeland for Labour today, which might have come under threat in a by-election.

I fear the current state of the Labour Party really is bad enough that Copeland is loseable.

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Time for Corbyn to go.

(Well, no.  That was some time ago.)

Here's the BBC's exit pollster John Curtice on the results and Labour.

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I await the pathetic excuses with morbid curiosity.

It appears that it's all Tony Blair's fault.

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I'm almost starting to wonder if a pre-election primary for a "prime ministerial candidate" couldnt be a way to dilute the Corbynites.

The registered supporters scheme is already going in that direction, and they seem to be even more pro-Corbyn than the membership.  (Which suggests that they're not representative of Labour voters who aren't members.)

I would agree with Blair (the poster, not the ex-PM) that the restrictions on voting were interpreted as a stitch-up and damaged Smith.  But I also didn't think Smith was a brilliant candidate: you could tell a Corbyn supporter last summer that Corbyn wasn't the candidate to win a General Election, and they wouldn't dispute this but would just say that Smith wasn't either.

So, who would be a likely candidate if Corbyn were to be challenged again?  (As opposed to a normal election after a Corbyn resignation.)

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Also worth noting we'll have another by-election after Gerald Kaufman passed away- I can't remember the name of the seat but it's a 16,000 Labour majority, but was only 6,000 back in 2010 due to the high lib dem vote.

If Labour lose this seat then we should just give up

Ha. Manchester Gorton would have been a prime Lib Dem by-election target in 2004! Will be rock-solid Labour, Greens or maybe LDs in a distant second. I think this was one of the Greens' best seats in the country in 2015 (9.8%) and one of the five seats where they came second (though by far the most distant second of the five), so could see them trying to make some effort and getting to 20-25% if they're lucky.

For what it's worth, the seat was about 62% Remain. Maybe the strongest Remain constituency in the North?

Not even the strongest (in fact not even the second strongest) in Manchester: both Withington (in the mid 70s) and Central were stronger if you believe the Hanretty estimates, and there were also two stronger seats in each of Liverpool, Sheffield and Leeds.

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Is there any reason to believe Corbyn would actually step down after a general election wipe-out?

Convention? But it's also convention to leave after a no-confidence vote (Margaret Thatcher left after winning one) so shrugging shoulders emoji

Off-topic, but no she didn't.  The Tories' rules at the time required a 15% lead for a victory on the first ballot, and she fell short.  She could have continued into the second round, but realised that MPs were going to switch their votes and that she was going to lose (at least it seems that's what happened) and pulled out.

As for Corbyn, who knows what disasters have to hit the party for him to actually leave of his own accord.  However, the membership's patience must have some limits.

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West Tyrone.

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Not the most interesting constituency for a by-election, it has to be said.  (Then, people thought that about Bradford West.)

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Polling day for Lewisham East is 14 June.  There are 14 candidates:

Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah (Green)
Ross Archer (Conservative)
Charles Carey (no description)
Janet Daby (Labour)
Massimo Dimambro (Democrats & Veterans)
Sean Finch (Libertarian)
Patrick Gray (Radical Party)
Thomas Hall (Young People's Party)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
David Kurten (UKIP)
Maureen Martin (Christian People's Alliance)
Mandu Reid (Women's Equality)
Lucy Salek (Liberal Democrat)
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain)

Democrats & Veterans is a UKIP splinter, led by former UKIP leadership candidate John Rees-Evans of "gay donkey tried to rape my horse" fame.  I presume the donkey carrying the Union Flag in their logo is not intended as a reference to this incident.  For Britain is also a UKIP splinter, the candidate being their leader, who is also a former UKIP leadership candidate.

The Young People's Party stood in by-elections in Croydon North (63 votes and last place) and Corby (39 votes) in 2012.  They'v also had a handful of General Election candidates; their candidate this time stood in Epping Forest in 2017 and got 110 votes, which is a record for the party...

I don't remember seeing the Radical Party before.  They have a rather verbose website.

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This is Safe LAB, right?

Massive majority - 45pts - last year and majority never lower than 15pts since the early 90s, so, yeah. Multiethnic working class residential constituency, mixture of council estates (big ones) and once quite smart but now pretty downscale terraces. Blackheath is quite middle class, but is just one ward. Traditional stronghold as well: most of the seat had continuous Labour representation - in the earlier part of the period the MP was Herbert Morrison - 1945-83.

... though it did vote Tory in 1983 and 1987, on slightly different boundaries.  Like a lot of London seats it swung further to the Tories in 1987 after the initial gain in 1983.  I think, though, that it's one of those cases where the 1983 and 1987 results seem like they're from a different world.  (See also Nottingham.)

Incidentally, in 1983 the SDP candidate was one Polly Toynbee.

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The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn has been called for Thursday 4 April.

Newport West is the sort of seat that could vote Tory in a landslide but usually votes Labour; it voted Tory in 1983 but Flynn gained it in 1987 and held it ever since.  In 2017 he got 52% to the Tories' 39%; it was a bit closer in 2015.  So Labour really ought to hold this even in the current mess that is British politics.

TIG can't stand as such as they're not yet a registered party (and surely won't be in time to be nominated).  The small "Renew" party, who have rather similar politics (to the extent that TIG's politics can be defined) have announced a candidate, though.

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Could an Independent not run with the promise to affiliate to TIG if elected?

Yes, no reason why not.  Indeed I suppose more than one might.

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When will selection take place?

Most parties have already selected, because the by-election was expected.  (Flynn had indicated he was about to stand down.)  The full list of candidates will be announced on Friday.

Labour's candidate is Ruth Jones, who stood in Monmouth in 2015 and 2017 and is a former president of the Welsh TUC; I don't know where she is in terms of Labour's factions. she endorsed Corbyn in 2015.  The Tories have selected Matthew Evans, a Newport councillor.

UKIP have selected Neil Hamilton.  For anybody else who remembers the mid-1990s, yes, that Neil Hamilton.

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Hypothetically if Labour lose this seat, what would that mean for Corbyn's leadership? I seem to recall a Stoke by-election loss to the Tories was the impetus for the "2016 coup" by the PLP.

Correction: Stoke Central was held but with an underwhelming performance; it was Copeland which was lost.  And, as mentioned, it was a bit after that, arguably encouraging May to call the 2017 election.

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11 candidates for Newport West

Jonathan Clark (Plaid)
June Davis (Renew)
Matthew Evans (Con)
Neil Hamilton (UKIP)
Ruth Jones (Lab)
Ryan Jones (LD)
Ian McLean (SDP)
Hugh Nicklin (For Britain)
Richard Suchorzewski (Abolish the Welsh Assembly)
Philip Taylor (Democrats and Veterans)
Amelia Womack (Green)

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Who are the people not from the regular parties?

Renew is a small anti-Brexit party.

Democrats and Veterans and For Britain are UKIP splinters, the latter certainly tending towards the far right.  (I'm not sure about the former.)

The SDP is the ghost of the 1980s SDP.  Famously David Owen refused to join the Lib Dems after the merger and tried to continue with a new SDP, but gave up in embarrassment after their candidate was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party in a by-election in Bootle in 1990.  Some of their members kept the party going with a very low profile and a handful of local councillors for 27 years, and it has recently gained more of a profile after several former UKIP members, including Patrick O'Flynn MEP, joined them.  As that suggests, it doesn't resemble its centrist pro-European ancestor and looks more like yet another UKIP splinter, though probably at the less offensive end of the spectrum of such things.

Abolish the Welsh Assembly is basically a single issue party, but also comes across as a bit UKIPpy and some of its leading figures are ex-UKIP.

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The SDP is the ghost of the 1980s SDP.  Famously David Owen refused to join the Lib Dems after the merger and tried to continue with a new SDP, but gave up in embarrassment after their candidate was beaten by the Monster Raving Loony Party in a by-election in Bootle in 1990.  Some of their members kept the party going with a very low profile and a handful of local councillors for 27 years, and it has recently gained more of a profile after several former UKIP members, including Patrick O'Flynn MEP, joined them. 

It is a little more complicated than that: the SDP was formally and officially wound up after the Bootle fiasco, but a small group of members (the most 'high profile' of which was literally the man who finished below the Loonies in the Bootle poll), met separately and voted to carry on (which, in practice, meant forming a new party with the old name; after all, no one else was using it). So it isn't the legal successor (even though it likes to pretend otherwise), but is a descendant.

They did surprisingly well (i.e. they saved their deposit) in the 1991 Neath by-election when Peter Hain was first elected.  Do you know what was going on?

As far as I can tell the only other by-election the post-Bootle SDP has contested was Newbury 1993.  They got 33 votes.