NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM) (user search)
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Poll
Question: Who won the 2010 election?
#1
Republicans
 
#2
Democrats
 
#3
Neither Party
 
#4
Both Parties
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)  (Read 160978 times)
Dgov
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,558
United States


« on: November 17, 2010, 12:00:12 AM »

Nah he'll probably survive. All the Republican parts of Dold's seat likely end up in his and Dold ends up with the two-year career.

Tsk Tsk.  You need to start thinking creatively about Gerrymandering.  The Democrats can probably take out every Republican in the Chicago area if they're greedy/skilled enough
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Dgov
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,558
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2010, 05:30:57 AM »

Younger whites vote that differently from older whites in SC?  In many conservative states they vote more GOP in general than the olds, such as in Kansas. Youngs in Kansas are very serious about Jesus - yes they are - and the moral rot corroding away America's virtu.

From what I can tell, there's really not much of an age gap in Southern Whites (or Southerners in general actually) like there is in say, California.  McCain actually won the 18-29 SC White vote by slightly more than the overall white vote (mostly because Gen X is abnormally Democrat).  Democrats do better with the Youth in those states because it's significantly blacker/browner than other generations (how much of this is Obamamania turnout though I don't know since I'm using 2008 numbers).  In 2008, the 18-29 Turnout in SC was barely 50% white while the 45-64 was about 75% White.  Obama won the former age group by 10 points and lost the latter by 22.

Obama even did only 3% better than the White vote average in Virginia and Florida, both where much of the population is decidedly not southern.  The only "Southern" states where there was a big age gap in white voters were North Carolina (where Obama won the young by 12 despite losing the rest of them by about 35), and Tennessee (where Obama lost young whites by 8 and lost the rest of them by 30)

If you measure for Congressional Races rather than the presidential, it gets weirder still.  In 2008 Texas, Cornyn did 6 points worse with the white 18-29s than the white overall, but actually managed to do 5 points better with Young Hispanics than with Hispanics overall, which is why he won the minority white 18-29 Demographic in the State.
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Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


« Reply #2 on: December 25, 2010, 07:48:02 PM »
« Edited: December 25, 2010, 10:29:59 PM by Dgov »

That's not a terribly implausible scenario, as there are about 5 black people in Vermont.

But don't you know that subsamples in polls are ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS RIGHT NO MATTER HOW SMALL!!!!11!!!! [/Dgov]

Do I honestly have to make that clear before every post?  I kind of assumed that the people posting here would have enough common sense to know that when I'm using exit polls, I'M USING EXIT POLLS.  Your mileage may vary.
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