Okay, here are my tentative predictions almost 2 years out.
Safe R
Mississippi
Missouri- McCaskill be blanched by Ann Wagner. In addition to sitting in a state Drumpf won by 20 points, she's highly unpopular.
Nebraska
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
Likely R
Arizona- As long as Flake makes it through the primary, this seat will be held by the Republicans, and I fully expect any challenge to fizzle out. In addition, I doubt an A-lister like Sinema will run.
Indiana- Donnelly is a non-entity who got lucky in 2012 with a terrible opponent. He'll lose comfortably to someone like Luke Messer or Susan Brooks.
North Dakota- Democrats are as good as dead in this state. Heitkamp has had some decent approvals in some polls, but her balancing act b/w Big Oil and the Dem base in this state suggests she has almost no room for error. She will almost certainly lose.
Lean R
Montana- Tester is highly overrated, and has bad approvals. He'll keep it close, but probably lose to someone like Tim Fox.
Nevada- This is a good target on paper for Dems, but with no top tier candidates on the horizon, it may be less enticing than it seems. In addition, the Reid machine will no longer be out in full force, and Nevada could very well revert to its red midterm status.
West Virginia- If the election were held today, Manchin would win, but the moment Drumpf sets foot in this state and starts campaigning against him, he'll be in a dicey situation.
Tossup
Florida- Nelson is the only candidate who can hold this seat for the Dems, but he'll likely face a stiff challenge from an experienced challenger like Rick Scott in a midterm year likely to be difficult for Democrats in his home state.
Ohio- Brown is an excellent fit for Ohio, but Josh Mandel is an extremely strong candidate who is running in an increasingly red state. Pure tossup.
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey is very low energy and ran a terrible campaign in 2012. He does have a good family name and some personal support in NEPA and SWPA, but Pat Meehan would instantly make this a barnburner.
Wisconsin- Baldwin will struggle to hold off Duffy. Fortunately, anti-Drumpf sentiment might save her.
Lean D
Maine- King will win if he runs again, but if he doesn't, a strong Republican like Bruce Poliquin could very well snatch this seat.
Michigan- Stabenow has gotten extremely lucky with the political climates she's ran in, and the opponents she's ran against. That said, she's a relatively savvy campaigner who would probably still be slightly favored over any Republican challenger at this point.
Likely D
Virginia- Kaine is safe unless Barbara Comstock runs, but that seems unlikely for now.
Safe D
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Maryland
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Right now, we're probably looking at a Republican net gain of between 5 and 9 seats, giving them their largest senate majority in decades (57-61 seats).
Angus has already announced he's running.
http://www.wmtw.com/article/a-fedex-driver-will-keep-job-after-saving-flag-from-burning/8651414
