State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[MAINEiac4434]

So I think it's safe to say that 2018's midterm electorate will be more similar to 2006's than 2010 and 2014.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm hearing that there was never a Democrat elected there to the assembly before.

It's considered one of the safest GOP districts in New York. Hillary got like 34% here...GOP turnout greatly outpaced Dem turnout for the primaries.

[MAINEiac4434]

Yeah, really looking forward to some of those races as well.

Do the Republicans have a realistic chance of winning the Maine House District 56 seat? Gina Mason (R) won it by 16 (58-42) in 2016, but given how Democratic-friendly the electorate will be in 2017, I have my doubts.

Continuing the discussion from the other thread... I rated this Likely R, but it definitely has the chance of flipping in the current environment. One of the races that I have the most uncertainty about, honestly, so I would welcome any insights you might have,

The Republicans are running Gina Mason's widower (their son is Senate Majority Leader and a candidate for Governor).  The Democrats are running their 2016 nominee.  Widows almost never lose special elections to replace their late spouses (although the Republicans defeated a Democratic widow in a Sanford districts in November 2015; he had come far closer in 2014 than the Lisbon Democrat had come in 2016 though) and I don't see why it would be any different for widowers.  Lisbon, once a Democratic town, seems to have gone completely to the dark side.  I'd personally rate this race as Safe Republican, although I wouldn't mind being wrong.

I agree, though I’m more bullish on this race than you. I have it as likely R.

[MAINEiac4434]

There's a special election in Maine today for the seat of late GOP rep Gina Mason. Her widower is running, and it's a solidly Republican area. If the Democrats can cut down the margins, though, it should be a good sign for the State Senate (which currently has a one seat GOP majority).

[MAINEiac4434]

Of all the unexpected things to happen in 2017, Oklahoma becoming the bulwark of the #Resistance is the most unexpected and bizarre.

[MAINEiac4434]

The fact is SD-45 shouldn't even be this close.

[MAINEiac4434]

Vincent isn't going to catch Rosino in SD-45.

[MAINEiac4434]

Don't look now, but O'Hara is surging in SD-37. Now less than 100 votes between the candidates.

[MAINEiac4434]

14 votes.

This is more intense than election night 2016.

[MAINEiac4434]

This is agonizing

[MAINEiac4434]

HAHAHA YES!

[MAINEiac4434]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains an VA HD and picked up Alabama but the later was because Moore was a muh candidate with a lot of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So far the only yuge warning is VA-HD.

This reads like a Bulgarian bot programmed to post random English words.

[MAINEiac4434]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains an VA HD and picked up Alabama but the later was because Moore was a muh candidate with a lot of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So far the only yuge warning is VA-HD.

This reads like a Bulgarian bot programmed to post random English words.

Virginia:


Virginia-HD:

Marry me

[MAINEiac4434]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

[MAINEiac4434]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Yes. You’d be hard-pressed to get me to do anything the day after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

[MAINEiac4434]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Yes. You’d be hard-pressed to get me to do anything the day after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

I was a wreck after the perfect season super bowl loss. I didnt even go to school for 3 days after

I didn't watch football the next season (didn't help that Brady was out).