Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

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The no-confidence motion was introduced earlier today.

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New Ipsos-Reid poll...

Lib 31% (down 3pts on last poll)
Con 31% (up 1pt)
NDP 18% (up 2pts)

BQ on 58% in Quebec

Will try to find more details...

On the Hill and Knowlton Predictor, that gives another hung Parliament:

Con 112
Lib 86
BQ 67
NDP 42
Other 1

wait I'm I reading this right  in the 1993 election the Progressive conservative party went from being in power with 151 seats  right before the election to  TWO seats.     The new reform party must have took lots of votes away from them but TWO seats.

The Progressive Conservatives had a complete meltdown in 1993. A recession, high unemployment, and new taxes made the party very unpopular. Just about all of its western seats went to the Reform Party, and almost all of its Quebec seats to the Bloc.

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Is there a real chance that any party will obtain a majority? Or is it pretty much certain that we will have another minority government?

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Interesting:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/02/elxn-layton-sask.html

Interesting indeed. Layton is probably right; in most ridings, the NDP and the Liberals combined outpolled the Conservatives. Of course, only a few of these (perhaps as few as two) were close enough for strategic voting to have hypothetically made a difference. Interestingly, in those two cases (Saskatoon-Humboldt and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre), it would have been advantageous for the NDP to vote strategically for the Liberals, rather than vice versa.

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I've been watching the CBC coverage... It appears that the Tories are doing much better than expected in Quebec (although no seats have been won yet).