FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread

[King]

No, they didn't, but any halfway decent team would have murdered us tonight.

Every fan whose team has won so far has said this. Nobody is obliterating anybody. Maybe it's the weather, but the parity is high in this cup.

[King]

Bradley continues to be weak sauce. Something needs to change.

[King]

I'm worried we just blew it.

[King]

Gosh darn...

Another solid performance in the World Cup by the US.

You mean by Tim Howard. The US didn't start to actually play until the last 10 minutes. Then it was actually pretty impressive, but too little too late.

Still a good tournament all in all for the US.

Shame Howard isn't 4 years younger, I'm interested in what Jurgen can build here for 2018 (if he stays and I hope he does).

[King]

Not trusting the guy who gives Brazil a 40% chance of winning it all.

You do know he also gives Brazil a 60% chance of not winning it all?

[King]

I'm a bit sceptical of some of the probabilities he's had for several matches so far.

But have any of them been proven wrong?

He gave USA the "absurd" 76% odds of passing through group heading into game three but it happened with very little doubt. He's been derided for giving the group winners too much of a chance for advancing to quarters, yet all they did. He gave Costa Rica-Greece near 50-50 with Costa Rica slight favorite and it went to penalties with Costa Rica winning.  His 20% odds for Algeria to beat Germany when the pundit world was saying 5-0, 6-0, 7-0 Germany ended up being wrong in that it probably should've been 40% for Algeria.

I'm not a huge fan of 538, but I can't say the football experts have shown they have any more of a clue than he does.

[King]

This is my problem with Nate Silver...

I agree with what you said and I'm not a fan of his kind of analysis. But I'd rather dismiss it for being boring than being questionable, because it doesn't seem to be anymore questionable than asking Gilberto Silva who he thinks will win.

/538 discussion

Not directly related to the world cup but Barca just made an initial offer of $120 million to Liverpool for Suarez

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jul/02/luis-suarez-liverpool-barcelona-70m

That'll take a real bite... out of their... revenue.

[King]

There's stats now on possessions, distance, and passing success in the game. I would say soccer stats tell a better story than NFL stats. NFL stats for defense and offensive line range from non-existent to awful.

[King]

Everybody wants Colombia to win, right?

[King]

Killer offside there. There was momentum

[King]

Nice clock burning there...

[King]

I think this one has slipped away. Brazil moves on.

Brazil-Netherlands remains my final pick

[King]

Would've been nice to see an upset IMO penalties seem to be where the talent difference becomes more apparent. Costa Rica's kicks were very straightforward and Krul guessed them all easily. Their best shot to win was at 118'

The worse part is, given the way all four teams have played, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the semis both play out 0-0 into penalties.

[King]

When did Tim Krul become a PK specialist?
His Premier League record is saved 2 of 20.

Maybe he hates Costa Ricans and Van Gaal hoped to channel his racist energy.

[King]

The horrible ref from Italy vs. Uruguay has been chosen for Brazil vs. Germany. The fix is in.

Lief might end up regretting all of those jokes about how Suarez didn't deserve punishment...

Well, if he likes Uruguay, odds are he hates Brazil.

[King]

Germany better not sit on this. Brazil has an equalizer in them.

[King]

lol

[King]

I bet Baby Muller enjoyed today's rout.

[King]

Wild guess... either Netherlands wins it in extra time or Argentina wins it on penalties.

[King]

There's always one half of the knockout rounds bracket that is weaker than the other. Even yesterday's Brazil could have defeated these two pathetic excuses for football teams. Argentina will really need to step it up (or Germany will need to choke, which is more likely).

I hope it's by Argentina stepping it up.

I'd rather watch Germany blow the doors off the place again than a repeat of this game.

[King]

That game was great fun