FL-PPP: Hillary leads all Pubs

[King]

The uptick in unfavorable is entirely from people who describe themselves as "very liberal" where she now has a 20% unfavorable rating; 14% unfavorable among Democrats. Those aren't votes for Scott Walker. Her favorability is still +15 with moderates, +8 with Independents where as Walker is -15/-11 and Cruz -28/-24 among moderate/indepedent identifiers respectably.

This is similar to 2011 when Obama had negative approval ratings but still led in the polls because about 25% of liberals disapproved of his job as President but said they would vote for him.

[King]

she will probably do worse than Romney among white men, Hispanics and Blacks.

And she will do this because...

[King]

So you're just making the same losing bet the Republicans made in 2012: we'll win because blacks won't show up for some reason and Latinos will trend Republican for no reason.

It's a theory that only works if you assume the Clintons are completely helpless to drive up turnout in a campaign and can't have Obama campaign for them as well. It also assumes that the 2016 GOP nominee won't be required to make all the same damaging comments that Romney had to like self-deportation in the primary debates in order to win. Romney didn't actually believe any of that stuff. He was sane.

It's just more of the same, more of the same. GOP entitlement to win this upcoming election. The GOP is not entitled to anything. They actually will have to earn votes and they show no interest doing so yet again.

[King]

So you're just making the same losing bet the Republicans made in 2012: we'll win because blacks won't show up for some reason and Latinos will trend Republican for no reason.

I get your point, BUT if you really think that Blacks will show up for Hillary in bigger numbers than they did for Obama and that she will get a higher percentage among them, you are really naive. And it's hard for me to imagine that Hispanic voters will vote even more Democratic than in 2012 - also based on many poll numbers, btw - but we'll see. However, you are absolutely right: The GOP shouldn't rely on demographics to win the election.  

Who said that? She doesn't need bigger numbers and higher percentages. If she simply maintains, she wins and wins big. If she loses 2-3 points, she still wins. Add in she will do be markedly better with whites and she could lose 5-6 points and still win.

You still haven't stated a reason why she won't maintain. There is no reason why she would lose these people.

Again, I heard this all in 2012. "Black people aren't as enthused as 2008. I can't see Obama winning as many Latinos as in 2008."

[King]

LOL, Jeb can't even lead in his home state. But Hillary will surely trail him nationwide in a few weeks once she declares!

Hmm, I'd like to see other polls though.

Have you seen Hillary's favorable ratings ? They are -10 or something and Bush's are +2.

Don't really know if she's actually ahead with these numbers, or if it's just PPP.

23% of Democrats like Jeb where as only 7% of Republicans like Hillary. Hillary has +8 independent favorability while Jeb only has +4. That's how Jeb can be more favorable than Hillary and lose.

[King]

I'm surprised that in a sample of voters in which a majority disapprove of Hillary Clinton, 47% would still vote for her over Jeb Bush.

Because PPP is slowly heading toward becoming a joke firm.

Just read the crosstabs folks. Very liberal Democrats give Hillary relatively bad marks (20% negative); moderate Democrats give Jeb relatively good marks (23% positive). Both groups still vote Hillary. Not very hard to decipher.

[King]

I'm surprised that in a sample of voters in which a majority disapprove of Hillary Clinton, 47% would still vote for her over Jeb Bush.

Because PPP is slowly heading toward becoming a joke firm.

Just read the crosstabs folks. Very liberal Democrats give Hillary relatively bad marks (20% negative); moderate Democrats give Jeb relatively good marks (23% positive). Both groups still vote Hillary. Not very hard to decipher.

I can believe the 20% bad marks from liberal Dems for Hillary, but I don't buy 23% positive for moderate Dems for Jeb.  I seriously doubt he has that much goodwill given his last name.  Walker is almost certainly the most electable in the current GOP field, as he's shown significant appeal to independents + can lock down his base, which Jeb has not done.

The poll says what the poll says 23% of Democrats say Jeb is okay compared to only 7% of Republicans for Hillary. Biden and even Obama get higher marks from Republicans than Hillary, likely because FOX has forgotten all about them and is on a 100% Hillary offensive.

Only independents/moderates matter for favorable ratings and Hillary smokes the GOP field in that subgroup.