Another 2016 Hypothetical Democratic Matchup

[Psychic Octopus]

It's funny, but I could see many of these people as top contenders. I'm not sure about Warner, though. I'm not sure if he could break out in the field. I'm going to discount Biden, Clinton, and Patrick in this scenario, purely because it makes it easier, and because I doubt they'll run. Anyway, I doubt they could hold a candle to the rest.

I would guess that the main battle would be between Cuomo, Schweitzer, and Warren. Warren would probably be the choice of the progressives, while Schweitzer would probably be a favorite of the Mountain West/heartland. I could see a lot of Democrats getting excited about a Schweitzer candidacy. Cuomo would probably be the favorite of the combine, and have Wall Street behind him.

So, really, I don't know who would win. It'd be fun to speculate, though. I think Schweitzer would win Iowa.

Schweitzer, really, is probably the Democrats' best choice. I'd have a hard time trying to think of a reason to vote against him. Pro-energy enrichment, pro-gun, skeptical of overseas conflict, pragmatic. He would have tremendous appeal in Red States. Tremendous. Not because of his policies, but because of his folksy demeanor. He could definitely connect with voters. Other than that, Republicans would have a hard time trying to label the public school-educated farmer as "out-of-touch" or "wrong for America," while they would easily do so with other Democrats:

Cuomo: Corrupt NYC liberal hostile to American values. The product of a dynasty. A son of privilege. The ultimate insider. Do you really want this man running your country?
Warren: Elitist Ivy League professor. Too feminist. She doesn't care about you.

And so on. So my vote would be for Schweitzer. For god's sake, the man uses a branding iron to veto bills. How badass is that?

[Psychic Octopus]

It's funny, but I could see many of these people as top contenders. I'm not sure about Warner, though. I'm not sure if he could break out in the field. I'm going to discount Biden, Clinton, and Patrick in this scenario, purely because it makes it easier, and because I doubt they'll run. Anyway, I doubt they could hold a candle to the rest.

I would guess that the main battle would be between Cuomo, Schweitzer, and Warren. Warren would probably be the choice of the progressives, while Schweitzer would probably be a favorite of the Mountain West/heartland. I could see a lot of Democrats getting excited about a Schweitzer candidacy. Cuomo would probably be the favorite of the combine, and have Wall Street behind him.

So, really, I don't know who would win. It'd be fun to speculate, though. I think Schweitzer would win Iowa.

Schweitzer, really, is probably the Democrats' best choice. I'd have a hard time trying to think of a reason to vote against him. Pro-energy enrichment, pro-gun, skeptical of overseas conflict, pragmatic. He would have tremendous appeal in Red States. Tremendous. Not because of his policies, but because of his folksy demeanor. He could definitely connect with voters. Other than that, Republicans would have a hard time trying to label the public school-educated farmer as "out-of-touch" or "wrong for America," while they would easily do so with other Democrats:

Cuomo: Corrupt NYC liberal hostile to American values. The product of a dynasty. A son of privilege. The ultimate insider. Do you really want this man running your country?
Warren: Elitist Ivy League professor. Too feminist. She doesn't care about you.

And so on. So my vote would be for Schweitzer. For god's sake, the man uses a branding iron to veto bills. How badass is that?

And what are your thoughts on O'Malley, the one candidate you haven't mentioned here?

Ah, he slipped my mind. I think he would be a good, solid candidate for the Democrats, and in line with the base. As I recall, he's had a fairly successful term as Governor, and has some fairly achievements under his belt (gay marriage, Compstat), as well as propositions to close the budget deficit. Playing guitar will probably increase his appeal. I see him competing with Cuomo and Warren in many respects, though Cuomo will have the advantage of big money, and Warren (if she runs, and, let's assume she does) is more endearing to the Democratic base, I think. I get the feeling the O'Malley would play well with women nationwide, though I'm not really familiar with his base in Maryland. I see him as a notch below the "big three" in this scenario, though that might change. I have no idea how much exposure Cuomo's more moderate policies will get in Democratic circles. I think that he'll be a favorite of the Wall Street and media establishment, though. Especially if he has a big ol' wedding to his girlfriend over the next three years.

However, I see a few weaknesses for the general election that the Republicans will pound on. For one, he plans to raise taxes on couples making more than 150K, and plans to apply the state tax to gasoline. Depending on how high prices are, the GOP would be able to make note of that frequently, and claim (though dubiously) that he would plan to do so nationwide. So, in all, I think that makes him a slightly weaker candidate than Schweitzer. But not by any means unelectable. Not by any means at all.

Now, on the GOP hatred scale, I would suspect that of these four, this is how it would work, from most hated to least hated.

1. Warren (there's no disputing this, really. If she wins, she'll have knocked off a Republican folk hero, and is a Harvard academic. Republicans would hate her. Hate her. On a level equal, if not greater than, Obama).

2. Cuomo ("Lamestream" media will favor him, Republicans will tar him as a big government man wanting to run your life).

3. O'Malley (Truthfully, I'm not sure what the reaction would be, but I doubt it will be substantially worse than your standard Democratic politician. Might have good relations with Congress, actually).

4. Schweitzer (I see no truly effective way for Republicans to tar him at this point. He's a farmer who speaks Arabic, is folksy, doesn't run around with women, and has a Cowboy-style image.  It'd be hard, to say the least.)

[Psychic Octopus]

I agree, Wormy. She'd be less experienced than Obama and more polarizing from the get-go. Dems love her, though, so if she runs I wouldn't rule out a nomination... even though such a nomination would favor the Republicans.

I don't discount the 2016 Dem field, but I'm pretty sure Cuomo and Warren would be underdogs.