Alberta 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Way out of bounds IMO.

Here's a Redford profile if anyone's interested. She and the PM have known each other for nearly 30 years among other things.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/alison-redford-a-leader-on-the-brink/article2387909/singlepage/#articlecontent

[RogueBeaver]

Why is Smith aping Ralphbucks? They're essentially a costly bribe. Do it properly with a tax cut or rebate.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/alberta-politics/6404445/story.html

I hope Smith keeps it to tax cuts. Let the other 3 parties engage in their usual spending auction.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Political+parties+promise+billions+perks+Alberta+voters/6401438/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

New poll out from ThinkHQ/CTV: WRP 41, PC 30, NDP 12, LPA 11. If the PCs are about to drop below 30 in the second week...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majority-in-alberta-poll/article2391311/

[RogueBeaver]

The Progs have always been centrist, that's why they were born and that's why they'll die. Good riddance.

[RogueBeaver]

City breakdowns for the Think HQ poll

Calgary
WRP: 47
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 7

Edmonton
WRP: 31
PC: 30
Lib: 18
NDP: 17

This must mean the NDP is ahead of the Liberals in the rest of the province.

Wonder what this will look like in your next projection.

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves

As happened here in Quebec for both Grits and Tories federally last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Campaign Research: WRP 45.5%, PC 28.8%, LPA 11.3%, NDP 10.2%. My only question is this: how many more PC seats tumble if they're below 30?

http://www.stephentaylor.ca/2012/04/new-poll-wildrose-up-by-17-points/

[RogueBeaver]

The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.

[RogueBeaver]

There are some PCs who'll survive on their personal popularity. If they lose official party status and Liberals form OO, Sherman will have a good claim to the last laugh.

[RogueBeaver]

The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.

QP?

CTV's Question Period. Here's the link.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/ctvs-question-period/april-1/#clip649165

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

I would laugh so hard if Ted Morton was last pC standing... They should have elected him leader.

Thanks for fixing that earlier error for me, Earl!

Had he been elected in '06 Wildrose probably wouldn't exist today. Post-election he should join Wildrose, where he clearly belongs. The PC remnants can join the Liberals or flee east to McWorld.

[RogueBeaver]

Getting nasty out there.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/alberta/Tories+Wildrose+Campaign+erupts+into+words/6426374/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

All the subtlety of a train derailment.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/alberta-tories-play-race-card-call-wildrose-party-of-old-white-men-in-election-146856345.html

[RogueBeaver]

Were the PCs this left-wing before the election?  They're starting to sound like Elizabeth Warren or something.

They were usually squishy centrists, but never to my knowledge had they tried playing the demographic cards. This could well be yet another self-nuking. Redford will be asked about this at the debate- whether she'll weasel, apologize or defend I don't know. What I do know is that they richly deserve what's coming to them.

[RogueBeaver]

It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

(Insert joke about converts here)

[RogueBeaver]

Until we see confirmation, junk poll. Last I checked Wildrose didn't self-nuke over the weekend.

[RogueBeaver]

In the event of a minority government (i'm not sure what the convention is in Canada, you guys are more experienced in minority governments), surely the Liberals and the NDP give confidence to the PCs rather than let Wildrose in, right?

Yep. Redford's a McGuinty Liberal, so Sherman won't have much trouble having his demands met.

[RogueBeaver]

Stat noise or are we seeing pro-PC strategic voting emerging?

[RogueBeaver]

More debate stuff. Smith defused the SoCon strawman, so long as she doesn't gaffe she'll be fine.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Thomson+Leaders+debate+could+prove+pivotal+point+election/6445565/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Fairly scripted so far. The format is panel questions.

[RogueBeaver]

Squabbling over healthcare.

[RogueBeaver]

Sherman's talking a lot about tax increases... and Alberta just posted a record surplus.

[RogueBeaver]

Redford's the one on defence, not Smith.

Mason: "You're stealing, Ms. Redford, from future generations because you don't have a way to pay for your promises." "You have thrown out your budget... bribing them with their own money."

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.

Shouldn't it be more important for the left-wingers to attack each other so that they can consolidate the left-wing vote and hope for a minority conservative government? Or would that only work for one term and would to WRP sweep next round since most Albertans probably hate both liberals and NDP.

See DL's post from earlier, he puts it better than I could.