Alberta 2012

[RogueBeaver]

My impressions: Redford sounds "smarter", but Smith sounds more personable. Brian Mason sounds solid, but the Raj guy sounds completely out of his depth.

He talked about tax increases for 45 minutes, but since he's hit his polling floor it probably won't do much damage.

[RogueBeaver]

I like Mason as well. The one who I really can't stand is Sherman... ugh. Redford's just a weasel who does a bad job of it.

[RogueBeaver]

Danielle Smith's certainly got that creepy Sarah Palin thing about her.

I'd hate to be an Albertan.

Maybe because her voice sounds a bit like Fey's Palin impersonation...

[RogueBeaver]

Will this debate change the polls? No. Otherwise I think we can all agree that Sherman had the worst performance.

[RogueBeaver]

Redford needed a knockout blow- something to fix her credibility gap or Palinize Smith. She didn't get it.

[RogueBeaver]

Probably. I mean, he talked about tax increases (not quite so suicidal as to be specific) for 45 minutes nonstop and the debate analyses hardly mention that. Yeesh.

[RogueBeaver]

A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

Could the Liberals be shut out? Also, does it mean anything seat-wise if the PCs drop below 30 and/or WRP hits 50?

[RogueBeaver]

Good profile from the G&M.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-is-she-albertas-sarah-palin-or-the-future-of-canada/article2402264/singlepage/#articlecontent

Lougheed & Getty endorse Redford.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Wildrose%2Bvictory%2Bwould%2Bgood%2BAlberta%2BCanada/6458494/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Den Tandt: No one should be surprised.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/15/michael-den-tandt-a-wildrose-victory-in-alberta-would-hardly-be-surprising/

[RogueBeaver]

They had one strategy with two parts: 1) Palinize Smith 2) Build flaming social-issues strawmen, mostly on abortion and gay marriage. Both failed. Barring any major reversal, they're headed for a "five-spiral crash", to quote GWB in another context.

[RogueBeaver]

Hatman, when's your final projection going up?

[RogueBeaver]

New prediction http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april_16.html

[RogueBeaver]

What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:

[RogueBeaver]

Leaders losing control?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Exhausted+parties+losing+control+says+political+analyst+week+before/6469227/story.html

Shocker.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Wildrose%20Party,%20Danielle%20Smith,%20favoured%20by%20Tory%20MPs,%20says%20Rob%20Anders/6467641/story.html

Not so shocking.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Alison+Redford+condemns+Wildrose+party+having+small+Alberta+vision/6473474/story.html

Assholes. Leave Klein alone.

http://blogs.calgaryherald.com/2012/04/15/kleins-wife-friends-angry-at-pc-criticism-of-sick-ex-premier/

[RogueBeaver]

I'm getting flashbacks to 8 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Has anyone here heard of Janet Brown before? Her name rings a very vague bell to me. Predicting a WRP seat count in the 50s based on that Leger poll.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Wildrose%2Bprojected%2Bseats/6482255/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

When will results start coming in?

10 PM Eastern.

[RogueBeaver]

It won't have an effect on federal politics, though it will on federal policy. Smith wants the oil to go east.

[RogueBeaver]

The last time a dynasty was toppled... Ontario PC, 1985.

[RogueBeaver]

7-3 PC. What's going on?

[RogueBeaver]

What's happening? No recent poll predicted this.

[RogueBeaver]

But what's happening? How can all the polls be wrong?

[RogueBeaver]

Even the NDP surge was picked up last year.

[RogueBeaver]

So basically 2004 federal election all over again, but the polls didn't catch it?

[RogueBeaver]

Can anyone else remember such a shocking result?