Canadian by-elections, 2012

[RogueBeaver]

That's exactly what Nathan Cullen proposed during the NDP leadership race. No one in either party wants to touch it with a barge pole. Mulcair was the most adamant in denouncing such an idea.

[RogueBeaver]

With a handful of exceptions, most of their current MPs won on personal votes. Bob Rae had a 10-point swing, Brison and LeBlanc also had serious swings against them. BW is winning on a personal vote and he knows it.

No, unfortunately I think any Liberal recovery would be like their UK counterparts' faux recovery in 1929. They can get a few points and some seats back but the foundation has been dynamited by Harper and Layton. 

[RogueBeaver]

Though not all personally popular Liberal MPs won. Speaking as an NDG-Lachiner. Otherwise I agree with you.

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder if the Tories will finally begin to make inroads with Anglo Montreal over the next decade. Their performance last year was so piss poor that it's hard to imagine them ever doing very well there but there are a few seats that should be natural territory for them.

We're getting Mount Royal when Cotler retires in 2015, might have a shot at Lac St. Louis without Scarpaleggia. Westmount-Ville Marie isn't happening because the demographics are wrong- especially in the "Ville Marie" half, full of students and Plateau yuppies.

[RogueBeaver]

He ran against Dion in '97 and Coderre in '00. As for Grey, no idea.

[RogueBeaver]

I think Itcush only ran once before in the 90s for the NDP and it may also have been in mount Royal. Keep in mind that redistribution may also change the boundaries etc...

There are probably all kinds of high profile people the NDP could run in Mount Royal - there may be municipal politicians from Snowdon or TMR or CSL etc...or people from the school boards remember this will be the government in waiting in 2015. Anyone who is ambitious with vaguely centre-left views on economic and social issues will be a possible candidate. Julius Grey says he wants to run next time for the NDP. Maybe he would try mount Royal?

The Snowdon councillor is not left-wing and I doubt very much than TMR has a left-wing councillor. What's CSL?

Last time, Gray as rumored in Westmount--Ville-Marie.

CSL = Cote St. Luc.

[RogueBeaver]

Why bother? Mulcair's comments about the oil sands aren't doing the NDP any favours in Alberta. To be honest, I'm a bit concerned about Duncan.

She's safe and quite popular in her riding despite facing a competent, well-liked candidate last year. Having seen her interviewed a few times I've liked her since '08- well, except that she keeps an orange speck in our blue sea.

[RogueBeaver]

What makes you think Levant's running? Last time didn't work out so well for him.

[RogueBeaver]

The Le Devoir folks will be giddy tomorrow morning, that's for sure. Maromentum.

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ spin: By-elections don't mean much.

PQ spin: When we win a seat that's been Liberal since Confederation, that's a BFD and Charest will be swept out whenever he pulls the plug.

[RogueBeaver]

The ADQ/CAQ surges happen every 4-5 years. 2002, 2006-7, 2011-2. Now they're back where they, IMO, belong.

[RogueBeaver]

LOL the Conservatives finish 7th in LaFontaine.

Who?

[RogueBeaver]

So the PLQ vote went CAQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Media is reporting than Liberals are now at 63 seats, which is a very very thin majority.

The thinnest possible, not seen since the last Unionist hurrah over 4 decades ago.

[RogueBeaver]

Sounds good. Has McGuinty set a date for Kitchener-Waterloo yet?

[RogueBeaver]

Durham becomes vacant with Bev Oda's resignation effective July 31.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1221037--analysis-bev-oda-goes-away-quietly-true-to-form-in-harper-s-ottawa

[RogueBeaver]

Bourque reporting that Erin O'Toole, a Heenan lawyer, is being tipped to win the Tory nomination in the impending Durham by-election. No confirmation or link yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Adma: His son.

More on candidate selection.

http://www.durhamregion.com/news/article/1387028--scramble-begins-in-durham-riding-to-replace-bev-oda

[RogueBeaver]

Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

When Broadbent had it?

[RogueBeaver]

Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.

[RogueBeaver]

Sorry to disrupt the municipal politics talk (), but back OT Erin O'Toole will be launching his Durham bid tomorrow per Bourque.

Bourque is a political blogger or analyst? I suppose you aren't talking about Geranium the First?

Pierre Bourque. This guy. I'd also use Kinsella but he isn't saying anything about this by-election.


http://bourque.com/

[RogueBeaver]

The guy Hatman's talking about. Have you guys decided to rerun your 2011 candidate or not?

[RogueBeaver]

Toews might get his judgeship, but given what happened with Cabinet I'll believe that when I see it.

[RogueBeaver]

Bev Oda is now officially out. Good riddance.

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec has separate elections for school board which is a joke. What's the turnout, like 10%?

Or thereabouts.