Australia 2004: Costello v. Beazley

[RogueBeaver]

Howard's decision goes the other way in 2003. By fall Costello's in the PMO. Lab decides to play it safe and return Beazley rather than rolling the dice on Latham. What happens? I assume Beazley's competence assures a result that looks more like 2001 than 2004, but could be wrong. Quite certain that the Coalition does not take the Senate.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm guessing that both transitions have rough patches, Coalition's getting sorted out before year's end and Lab's by spring.

Does the election timing change? Or still held in October?

Will Costello push hard for IR or just run on the economy and "2 time loser" against Beazley? Without Coalition control of the Senate that could mean no WC... which bodes interesting for '07.

[RogueBeaver]

So how big is the Coalition swing? I assume that the debates are basically a draw. Beazley resigns after the election and is replaced by Rudd? Again, assuming that Rudd/Gillard team up as per RL.