The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[RogueBeaver]

More on Hillary and Iowa.

[RogueBeaver]

Vander Plaats says Rubio should consider 2020, not '16, for obvious reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

Long NYT article on unease about the Clinton Foundation.

[RogueBeaver]

Christie took shots at Jindal and Paul.

[RogueBeaver]

Paul has returned fire through an adviser: "So if I translate Gov. Christie correctly, we shouldn't be the party of ideas," Paul adviser Doug Stafford told CNN in an email. "We shouldn't care what we stand for or even if we stand for anything. We reject that idea. Content-free so-called 'pragmatism' is the problem, not the solution." So the debate exchanges will be a repeat of the squabbles between Rudy and Ron Paul 5 years ago.

Of course Christie is Romney's heir: Northeastern center-right establishmentarian. Now granted he's a far better pol and more conservative than Romney, but they still occupy the same primary slot.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah. As for Christie, while I'm much closer to him than Paul on the FP argument I don't think trying to shut down debate on this or any ideological subject is healthy. He couldn't have forgotten the FP debate where Romney was either mishmash or disagreeing with Obama on implementation rather than policy, Russia aside?

[RogueBeaver]

Uhh, Scott Brown to IA. Headline grabbing.

[RogueBeaver]

More on Scott Brown's headline-grabbing in IA. A better way would be running for guv, Senator.

[RogueBeaver]

For the same reason we discounted his musings about running against Shaheen?

[RogueBeaver]

Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Walker will attend a DC fundraiser for Branstad 9/24. Christie, Jindal and Ryan had signed on as sponsors but had scheduling conflicts.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio to CA for fundraising this week.

[RogueBeaver]

That Rubio CA fundraiser is in Hollywood, establishment moneymen.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio to attend a DC mega-fundraiser in a few weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

Catanese article on how Jindal/Perry/Walker made their pitches at Haley's campaign kickoff last week.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio to headline Cooch fundraiser on the 16th.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio will decide late next year.

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio will write another book for release next year, this one on the national and Pub futures.

[RogueBeaver]

We know Ryan's writing his largely by himself, Rubio's first was a mixed bag IIRC. Only of these I own is Jindal's.

[RogueBeaver]

Story about where Romney's fundraising network might end up: one person they won't support is Walker, because he publicly criticized the Romney campaign. Critiques that turned out to be dead on. Network's particularly interested in Rubio. Also a buried nugget, which I think we mentioned in this thread a while ago IIRC: Christie, Rubio, Paul and Ryan will attend a fundraiser at Woody Johnson's home in 2 weeks, before heading to Branstad's fundraiser the following day.

[RogueBeaver]

Reminder that there is some FP space between Cruz and Rand. Rubio getting some softer coverage with Syria crowding everything else out, but I don't think that translates into anyone moving on as Catanese implies. Without a domestic policy niche to hang his cap on, Rubio becomes vulnerable to a governor lobbing "Republican Obama" his way in a debate. Questions about political skill and judgment too.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the full Parade article on Rubio.

[RogueBeaver]

Paul interview w/Buzzfeed.

[RogueBeaver]

Cillizza ranks the Pubs: #1 Rand,  #2 Christie, #3 Rubio. Also cites WI sources as saying Ryan's more interested than CW assumes. Which makes sense, considering his upcoming book and comments about enjoying his national experience.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT on the Biden/Hillary dynamic. He won't run against her but feels he's being underestimated in the conversation and doesn't want to lose leverage with the Dem establishment. Won't decide till Beau's health issues are resolved.

[RogueBeaver]

If Biden wants to be a part of the conversation, my thoughts are that he'd need to "jump in" early to gain some steam and attention. If he waits until April 2015, it'll be too late.

If you ask me, he'll need to start looking like a serious candidate even before the midterms. Is there a BidenPac or something equivalent? Would that even be becoming of the Vice President of the United States? I just think he'll need to be out on the trail espousing some kind of message, even if it's just on behalf of other Dems around the country in 2014. If not, he's moot.

I don't think there's a Biden PAC right now. He won't run against Hillary, so he'll probably find out early enough to avoid jumping the gun. Biden making major moves in 2014 would spark a flood of speculation about Clinton being out, since he's now on record as saying he wouldn't run against her.