Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Greens aren't fans of that idea, but I highly doubt they vote against Lab on confidence matters.

[RogueBeaver]

Whoa.

[RogueBeaver]

She probably didn't, given the depth of her bunker mentality in those final days.

[RogueBeaver]

Sept. 21, Aug. 31, Oct. 19 are all possible election dates.

[RogueBeaver]

Green said on Twitter that the long Senate ballots and concerns about informal voting might cause the referendum to be axed.

[RogueBeaver]

AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

I'm surprised at the results of that poll, the Liberals under Turnbull did considerably worse than the Liberals under Abbott against Rudd Labor, in the period 2008-10.

Short memories, plus the media hero out of power and all that jazz. Does Turnbull even have much of a grassroots following outside committed wets?

[RogueBeaver]

A good ABC article on how Labor's along for the ride, at least on internal matters.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh come on. While Turnbull's a smart guy and serious politician, his leadership was a total joke- polled in the teens on PPM and worse than Gillard on 2PP. That's before we get into policy. As for Abbott, where exactly is he uberconservative on policy? Not economically. As for social, not proposing to upset the frontbench consensus on SSM, abortion, guns, capital punishment, etc.  All this said, Rudd's bounce seems a pro-Rudd rather than anti-Abbott reaction- regular honeymoon. No need for the Coalition to stock up on Depends.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's Peter Brent's take on the honeymoon thing.

Polnut: This is just our running "primary cause of Lab's problems and its electoral effect" disagreement. We're in agreement on everything else. We'll find out on E-Day, I guess.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd plans to scrap the carbon tax and move directly to ETS. To do that he'd need to recall Parliament, unless he wants it as a manifesto promise.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd plans to scrap the carbon tax and move directly to ETS. To do that he'd need to recall Parliament, unless he wants it as a manifesto promise.

I was just about to post that, who does Mr. Rudd think he is kidding?

Just another gimmick in the Gimmick Premiership.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't. Possible yes, but my opinion is still a Coalition House majority. Senate was always out of de jure reach per Green.

[RogueBeaver]

So the hawks won.

[RogueBeaver]

PNG says they won't resettle those denied refugee status.

Reforms approved but will need final ratification by national conference next year.

Newspoll out: 52-48 Coalition, which translates to 83-65 on Green's app.

[RogueBeaver]

Mike Kelly will shadow MOD.

[RogueBeaver]

A boat sank, 157 survivors, 3 dead.

[RogueBeaver]

Back to the future: Victorian infighting.

[RogueBeaver]

TWU chooses indirect spending on its issues instead of a $250k direct donation to the ALP. Weird Oz headline- it'd be a snub if they stayed out entirely, which of course would never happen.

[RogueBeaver]

Gillard speaks from the political grave, mostly LOL-worthy IMO.

Anyone know whether there will be a dissolution on Saturday or Monday? Or will he wait for 9/21 as E-Day?

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd's telling G20 colleagues he'll be there, but both he and Bryce are seeking advice about an e-dissolution.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd's in Afghanistan and won't be back till tomorrow. Election's been postponed, I'm guessing 9/21?

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd v Bolt preview.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd is contemplating a proposal which would mandate boot camp for dole-seeking youth.

[RogueBeaver]

Some elements of NSWR expect Rudd to dissolve next weekend, but the early September dates seem highly unlikely. One person who's gungho for an early election: Paul Howes.

[RogueBeaver]

Election call this weekend for 9/7? Rudd hasn't moved the needle in key VIC marginals either.