AR Congressional Races 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Griffin's popular but more importantly, the Dems will be shut out federally. More accurately, the Dem establishment pathologically despises Halter and doesn't want him running for anything- not for Congress, nor are they keen on him being the nominee against Boozman in 2016. They'd prefer McDaniel.

[RogueBeaver]

Dems already have a scare site up, nothing which a DSCC press release hasn't mentioned before.

[RogueBeaver]

For Miles: Draft Halter in CD2 on FB.

Pryor's going up with a $50k ad burst tomorrow and Wednesday in LR/Jonesboro/Ft. Smith. Somehow I suspect they won't be positive.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the ad, which reminds everyone who has the R+14 voting record in an R+14 state. Amazingly they're hitting Cotton for opposing Obamacare.

[RogueBeaver]

Trende takes a deep dive, including geographic. Concludes a tossup but with his finger on the scale for Cotton.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a livestream of the announcement. Plus a Pryor interview.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. He said he'll stand with Arkansas and lead from the front as he's (literally) done before, whereas Pryor's a wimpy backbench Obama stooge- whose slogan "Arkansas First" is a fraud.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor called Obamacare "an amazing success story so far." Needless to say the ad writes itself.

C4G endorses Cotton as expected.

[RogueBeaver]

C4G is going up with a 6-figure ad buy for this.

[RogueBeaver]

He doesn't use the word Obamacare, premiums and pre-existing conditions are mentioned. At any rate here's the "amazing success" video.

[RogueBeaver]

He doesn't use the word Obamacare, premiums and pre-existing conditions are mentioned. At any rate here's the "amazing success" video.

My god, Pryor is stupid

Can't say I disagree.

Meanwhile downballot, Westerman will announce for the 4th tomorrow. Darr will be getting in within a week. Cotton had a friendly chat with Westerman yesterday judging from FB pix, make of that what you will. Westerman's by far the strongest candidate anyways.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Darr's not the strongest candidate. The only Dem to express interest is former House Minority Leader Bobby Pierce (D-Sheridan).

Pryor on Obamacare: "No, I'm actually not" second-guessing my decision. Then discusses what he sees as its benefits. So he really wants to get thumped then.

[RogueBeaver]

What base? With the Greatest Generation gone, Arkansas is now as Republican as Alabama. Enten concludes that at this point, the race leans Cotton.

[RogueBeaver]

More Pryor: in a local TV interview he insists that Obamacare "is actually working in a lot of ways" and after talking about frustration with Washington, the interviewer says "Senator, you are Washington." Hutchinson and Lincoln are still there- on K Street.

[RogueBeaver]

More Pryor on how awesome Obamacare is. From the same speech: job losses are just part of a capitalist economy. Latter's Kinsleyan: impolitic truth.

"I'm not opposed to earmarks."

[RogueBeaver]

I find him hilarious.

[RogueBeaver]

My only guess is that he thought, if he put thought into it at all, that better this than Romneyesque gibberish or Lincoln pretending her voting record didn't exist. It'll get more interesting when Pryor has to explain why he supports the AWB in 2004 but opposes background checks now.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr will announce for the 4th on Monday evening.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton says he'll next target Pryor on guns. Lots of material there. So Senator, why the evolution?

[RogueBeaver]

Another conservative poll, this one by the Washington Free Beacon/Polling Company (that's their actual name) showing Pryor up 45/43, Cotton leading 48-38 with indies but Pryor 51/37 with women.

On another polling note, Tom Jensen said on Twitter that PPP won't poll AR unless someone pays them, so we can only wait for Talk Business and a real poll.

[RogueBeaver]

That's one issue Pryor won't be eager to discuss. Gillibrand wants a D seat, as the article mentions.

[RogueBeaver]

They'll back the man with a lifetime A rating, not the one with a lifetime C- rating.

[RogueBeaver]

A) he swatted that away last year, said through a spox recently that his view has changed. B) there's a disclaimer about the intentionally provocative and contrarian- a key part of his profile- nature of his columns. C) McDonnell's thesis didn't hurt in a purple state, etc. Particularly when the local media isn't touching it, as is the case here.

All this said, I don't agree with a youthful opinion he held 15 years ago and no longer holds.

[RogueBeaver]

Precisely why Pryor would be foolish to try and cast Cotton as extreme. Not that he has a plethora of options. Brummett agrees: unless Pryor tries going nuclear he's on track to lose.

[RogueBeaver]

Both men reconfirm that they're gearing up for a long fight, nationalized around their respective voting records.