Quebec: April 7, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC has 64/54, 308 65/55 PLQ. Look at that hilariously inefficient PLQ vote. Low 40s and 8pp gap, can't seal a majority.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger said on Twitter that the PLQ lead was 12 on Friday, 7 on Saturday, 3 on Sunday. So still a tossup, and I haven't changed my prediction.

[RogueBeaver]

The bilingualism and sovereignty # should hearten we federalists. As should the Ipsos finding about 68% of Quebecers feeling "profoundly attached" to Canada.

[RogueBeaver]

Gagnon offers a plausible explanation for Couillard's Roberval run: up or out.

PLQ oppo research.

How to cannibalize the CAQ.

Family-politics balance.

[RogueBeaver]

His wife's from there and he's very passionate about fishing.

[RogueBeaver]

Anyone thought of a drinking game for tonight's debate? I'd recommend NOT using "paradis fiscal", otherwise you may have BAC problems.

[RogueBeaver]

Two good takes on last night's debate.

[RogueBeaver]

Disgusting.

[RogueBeaver]

On another subject, I think Couillard did quite well on TLMEP. As is Marois, though they're persistent on PKP.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ would invoke the notwithstanding clause on the charter.

Merci beaucoup, Mme David.

Recap of the ID debate since '07.

How previous final weeks turned out.

[RogueBeaver]

BOOM goes the dynamite, but dunno how much damage this will cause. So much scandal... were it not a week out I'd be tempted to say voter cynicism wins out.

[RogueBeaver]

Don't freak out about the CAQ's CROP internal.

[RogueBeaver]

Legault promises to cancel the latest Hydro hike.

Marois says the financing allegations are a smear job.

I like this Gagnon column a lot.

[RogueBeaver]

We will get a CROP later this week, hopefully another Leger too.

[RogueBeaver]

Uh, I think this G&M article is very strange. In recent decades we've had Bourassa, Parizeau and now Marois who could classify as wealthy. Before that Taschereau. Personally I couldn't care less what my premier's net worth is.

[RogueBeaver]

More fundraising issues, and the PLQ preps transition.

Health policy.

[RogueBeaver]

Confirmation of what we knew: there is no right-wing party and hasn't been one for 44 years. ADQ is only a partial exception. Though I blame cardiology and leadership, not voters...

[RogueBeaver]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

This is why I feel so disconnected from provincial politics: don't have anyone to vote for. Was born far too late.

[RogueBeaver]

'08 all over again. If the PQ loses, who leads them next? Lisee or Drainville? If Marois wins she'd probably dump Duschesne due to underperformance, that was reported a few weeks ago.

[RogueBeaver]

'08 all over again. If the PQ loses, who leads them next? Lisee or Drainville? If Marois wins she'd probably dump Duschesne due to underperformance, that was reported a few weeks ago.

Wouldn't TVA push Péladeau candidacy?

The guy who'd be largely responsible for their loss? Which reminds me: PLQ is running out of potential leaders. Only one left is Moreau, who's basically Charest without the personality and campaign skills. Need some 20 or 30-somethings with star potential IMO, but that's as foreign to the PLQ as charisma or populism.

[RogueBeaver]

Whether or not TVA shills for Peladeau I fully expect he'll run for the leadership. It always struck me a bit fishy that someone so prominent in business would willingly give it up to run for office in a contested election, even if it meant a spot in Cabinet. Has there been any polling in his district to indicate whether or not he'll win? Saint-Jerome has been a rather swingy riding lately. With the PQ down and the CAQ up PKP might be SOL.

On a different note, and at the risk of jumping the gun a bit, what was the last time that a ruling party voluntarily submitted to an election - not voted down via non-confidence or obliged by term limits - and lost outright (i.e. not 'returned with a minority/reduced majority)?

Huh? Since 1960 no one has won more than 2 consecutive majorities. Last time a first-term government defeated: 1970, when the UN had been imploding for 18 months. Only 2 other times in a century: 1939 and 1944.

[RogueBeaver]

For the other question: PKP ran because he wanted to be premier after an interval at Finance. If he can't be premier he'll leave fairly quickly.

[RogueBeaver]

308 projection: 64/55/5/2, 42/31/17. Liberal vote inefficiency for us, again. Not at its finest though.

Also: CTV will have the CROP in an hour.

[RogueBeaver]

It's been all but confirmed by top political reporters and is a very safe assumption to make. When directly asked the leadership question a few weeks ago he didn't even deny it, just said he wanted to serve St. Jerome.

[RogueBeaver]

1976? The one that elected the PQ for the first time and ushered in a generational shift in Quebec politics? Yikes! Not the most auspicious precedent for Marois.

Bourassa did it in 1973 before the oil shock hit, thought it would work again. Before him Duplessis in 1939, though both men recovered politically.