Quebec: April 7, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Another winning example: Lesage in '62.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos has 37/29/19/13. Narrow PLQ majority, also says PLQ/PQ tied among Francophones. CROP will drop in 25-odd minutes. If these hold up, PLQ is on the minority/majority threshold. At which I'd be very relieved.

[RogueBeaver]

Good luck at reducing MTL congestion. Though in my experience, these past few years downtown traffic has thinned out - especially in summer.

Legault is having trouble believing in a PLQ victory. Me too.

LOL, Porter endorses Couillard.

[RogueBeaver]

308 projects 72/46/5/2. 2003 all over again. As much as I dislike the PLQ, this government is disgusting.

[RogueBeaver]

ROFLMAO: Marois now promises to cut personal income taxes, said she never mentioned it because no one asked her. What a train wreck of a campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

So looks like Drainville - minister for democratic institutions among other hats-  violated the Elections Act.

[RogueBeaver]

In the current train wreck context, though. I'd also love to see a live PKP interview on Monday night.

[RogueBeaver]

Great article from Hebert on how the PQ engineered their own demise. I'm sure Landry can console Marois.

[RogueBeaver]

Marois' final days. This is really like '03 or a bit farther back, '66: flank speed into the minefield.

Couillard's legal Charter advice.

Maltais believes NON would win another referendum.

Since the PQ became a governing party, this could be their worst campaign aside from '85. Marois knows about that one: she was washed away in the Gritnami.

[RogueBeaver]

Peladeau's sovereignty fist-pump flash polarized the electorate along sovereigntist/federalist lines, when we Quebecers are strongly opposed to another referendum. Soft nationalists bolted to the CAQ and Liberals while left-wing sovereigntists disappointed at the PQ's rightward drift went QS. Once Plan A vaporized they had nothing left and made it up as they went along, becoming increasingly paranoid and desperate. The initial strategy was sound, execution completely blown.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, that's the detailed version.

[RogueBeaver]

That's on the minority/majority threshold, right now a razor-thin Liberal majority. PLQ needs more swingers and CAQ to get a comfortable (70+ seats) majority. TCTC has 66/47/10/2.

[RogueBeaver]

Other reminders: 25% could still switch, 15 ridings by 1000 votes or less, Leger stopped polling Thursday. So if something happens this weekend...

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting from the age crosstabs: PLQ leads in all age groups. 37% among 18-24, with the PQ 4th among those voters. PLQ-CAQ tie among those 25-34, PQ third. Even among seniors PLQ leads. I didn't know this, but in '86 a leading political scientist predicted the PQ would be a generational party lasting 30-35 years.

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC: Marois, Legault, Maltais, De Courcy, PKP all in tight races. Who will lose? Marois was flotsam in the '85 Gritnami, so it wouldn't be the first time.

Speaking of said Gritnami, I think PMJ has an excellent claim to the last laugh. He and his kangaroos can say "We've been telling you so for 30 years."

[RogueBeaver]

CROP should be out soon, and that will be the final poll. Much like Joe Clark, I expect Marois will be a blip on the historical radar screen. She did achieve her lifelong goal of being our first female premier. Shortest term of any elected premier since Parizeau.

[RogueBeaver]

These charts are what should scare the PQ. From our polling guru, U de M's Claire Durand.

[RogueBeaver]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

Who said the PQ is doomed? They'll be back in a couple of cycles, but medium to long term some ideological adjustments may be in order. If this current trend holds, which it may not - 20 years ago picture was very different.

[RogueBeaver]

Reminder from Macpherson: this will be the shortest-lived elected government since Confederation. Guess someone had to set the record.

[RogueBeaver]

How funny would it be if CAQ was able to push PQ into third?

Getting close with Angus Reid.

PV perhaps, but not seats. Doubt either happens, same question was posed 19 months ago about PLQ/CAQ too.

[RogueBeaver]

So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

Completely blew a winnable writ campaign, very similar to 2003 when she was Landry's deputy. Lousy premier to be sure on the political and policy fronts. Just 2 months ago the PLQ was in disarray (extremely rare for them: last time that happened was the late '60s) and completely incoherent on many policy issues, cartwheeling or waffling. PQ went through many contortions in their first year, which smoothed out last fall.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ has only been massacred once: '85. Circumstances are very different now. Though ultimately PMJ and the kangaroos were right. Marois was a caribou in those days.

[RogueBeaver]

Ridings to watch, none we didn't know already.

[RogueBeaver]

It was predicted 19 months ago too, won't happen this time either.

[RogueBeaver]

When do polls close? I might have a "chance" to see the beginning of the counting since I have to stay up late to write a paper.

Little over 3 hours from now. I'll put up results pages and Radio-Canada livestream later. As usual, projection should be within an hour of polls closing.