Quebec: April 7, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Debate will be on the 20th.

[RogueBeaver]

Rapid riser list: I'd include PMJ, Bourassa and Sauvé. Would be fantastic to see someone rise that quickly today, in either party.

[RogueBeaver]

More Laurentian nonsense from Den Tandt. Marois' win sets in motion a referendum, ROC panic, and the polarizing Trudeau rather than popular Mulcair as "Captain Canada."

In an otherwise decent Star article: Marois will "win the nine extra seats the party needs for a majority in the 125-seat National Assembly will be won on the backs of Quebec’s religious minorities, anglophones and other groups that make up the fringes of the province’s patchwork." More like "suburban Francophones in the couronne."

[RogueBeaver]

New Leger out: 37/35/15/8 topline, PQ leads by 22 among Francophones. No word yet on the actual Francophone number. My guess is high 40s, so comfortable majority or a little less depending on SFL (Shy Francophone Liberal) effect.

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC projects PQ 62, PLQ 56 with those numbers. My bet's still on a PQ majority.

[RogueBeaver]

National Assembly has been dissolved.

[RogueBeaver]

Dunno how your (and TCTC/308) model accounts for Houda-Pepin as I-PLQ in La Piniere, or indies in general.

[RogueBeaver]

Never mind: 308 accounts for her, Breguet thinks she'll do as poorly as Indies usually do. At least Hanley was entertaining and did a lot for his constituents...

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, 1 in the last 60 years isn't exactly a great sample size. FWIW 308 has her at 21% on average, with the fat doctor at 40%.

[RogueBeaver]

If Marois gets a majority she will enact the Charte and amend that other Charte to francize medium and small business. Plus the euthanasia bill. Fortunately no CEGEP-101.

[RogueBeaver]

In other news, Lawrence Bergman is retiring. Wonder who Couillard will have to replace him.

[RogueBeaver]

More retirements: Breton and Malavoy.

[RogueBeaver]

How many times will the Anglo media ask about an English debate? Marois openly admitted today her English isn't good enough. (I don't recall the whining about Charest not participating in English debates) Though I do agree that a Gazette interview in either language is fair game.

No CEGEP-101, as predicted.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, that's who I meant.

[RogueBeaver]

More policy.

Independence would give the government more regulatory power over Enbridge.

Malavoy was eased out, partially due to health reasons.

More candidate news.

Targeted ridings.

The gallery, led by La Presse's Paul Journet, isn't thrilled with Marois' Harper-like approach to media relations. Compares it to les cassettes de Bourassa. My compromised would be more interviews, try befriending those who're interested in exchange for limited pressers. But that's just me. Ironic though for the PQ considering their roster and history.

[RogueBeaver]

PKP was finally convinced to run in St. Jerome.

[RogueBeaver]

Or as one wag put that, how will Lilley pronounce PKP's name? Best joke of the campaign so far.

[RogueBeaver]

My guess is he won't do much talking. PQ is aiming for the CAQ vote and ignoring QS.

[RogueBeaver]

Economy, identity, family, holdings in a blind trust, non-committal on the leadership question.

[RogueBeaver]

Good cartoon.

FTQ reacts as expected.

[RogueBeaver]

They've been distant for a while now. FTQ isn't endorsing any party because none share their values.

I'm sure Lisée and Drainville (who hate each other's guts, for leadership and other reasons) are just as thrilled as the FTQ. PKP will be the dauphin, especially since he'll have a very senior economic post (quite possibly Finance itself). So Finance Minister PKP, quite possibly PREMIER PKP in the future. He left the door wide open when asked the leadership question "I'm focused on serving St. Jerome" and even joked that he didn't want to enter politics at 65. Coincidentally, Marois didn't look amused.

[RogueBeaver]

That RC/CROP poll is 36/36/17 topline and 27/26/16 MPM.

[RogueBeaver]

42/25 PQ among Francophones.

[RogueBeaver]

Over half the electorate is still persuadable. Marois' problem is that her satisfaction rating is now 37%... needs to raise her ceiling a bit.

[RogueBeaver]

Paradis is running again, unsurprisingly.