Quebec: April 7, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

SPQ-Libre's reaction to the idea of a pro-RTW leader is rather predictable. Realistically, at most a return to Levesque's second term on the labour front in said scenario.

More electoral math.

Marois wants more tourists.

[RogueBeaver]

The PQ's candidate in Gouin is an insane fanatical secularist: baptism and circumcision are rape, kosher food is a rabbinic scam which finances Jewish and Muslim military operations, girls should be forbidden from wearing veils to school.

[RogueBeaver]

Another PQ candidate has been fired, this one for posting an Islamophobic message on FB and supporting Panzergirl.


Speaking of Islam, Marois said that "there is a risk of Islamic fundamentalist infiltration." This is worse than '07 ever was, IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

Is it possible to be a nationalist and not be racist?

Absolutely.

[RogueBeaver]

So PKP blowback continues, and Marois literally had to push him aside at a presser today. I can only imagine his reaction. She must wish the Legislative Council was still around... would've made a Cabinet appointment much easier.

[RogueBeaver]

In GIF form.

[RogueBeaver]

The conflict between their immigration and "identity" policies have always been rather glaring.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger has a 37/37/14 tie and the PQ at 43% among Francophones, a slippage from last time. Flash polarization on the national question is starting, and PKP's a polarizing figure himself.

[RogueBeaver]

57% of Quebecers, 64% of Francophones have a negative opinion of Muslims. 56% of Quebecers have a negative opinion of Hasidic Jews.

[RogueBeaver]

308 still projects a PQ majority.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting article from Breguet on the sovereigntist division. Reminds me a lot of '66 and the UN-RIN coop deal.

Which would be another '66 parallel though with a much smaller gap. I don't see the huge deal there, PV topline is just a stat.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ's Megantic candidate has some interesting views on welfare recipients.

[RogueBeaver]

Breguet projects that at 60/58/5/2 PLQ, but 52/48 on who wins. So a jump-ball minority. More interesting is that 2/3 of Quebecers don't want a referendum but 2/3 of us also think she'd hold one anyways.

More vetting problems, this time a Grit.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus the ballot box bonus, which never seems to be caught in the polls. It would be hilarious if Marois' star recruit denied her a second term. Doubly hilarious because if he's blamed he obviously won't get her job.

[RogueBeaver]

ROFL.

PQ switching strategy: ethics, charter and a Marois-PKP-Drainville trio. They tried the latter in '03 with Landry-Marois, we know how that turned out. Charter's low on the priority list, but depending on who that 27% is...

PQ going after Couillard on ethics depends on whether people care more about Dr. Porter or "le deal."

Cabinet material for the PQ/PLQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Drainville calls Couillard a vendu in all but name. So they don't use that word, but do keep a candidate with anti-Semitic writings.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos has 37/32/16 PLQ, 38/29 PQ among Francophones.

[RogueBeaver]

This is why I trust our local polls more. I'd be relieved, not happy at a PLQ victory.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a very good article from Michel David on what the PQ would face after a hypothetical defeat.

Paywalled article on the history of leaders' debates. IIRC we only had 3 before the '90s: '62, '76, '85. Lesage wiped the floor with Johnson in '62 by all accounts, the other notable if unsurprising thing is that Johnson insisted on an English segment.

[RogueBeaver]

Dear God, they want to ban the burqa at universities now. But this totally has nothing to do with Muslims.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Forum's a joke.

[RogueBeaver]

We're barely halfway through the campaign. More important is the debate in about 3.5 hours. Will post the livestream when that's up, but due to circumstances I'll be following on Twitter.

[RogueBeaver]

From what I'm seeing on Twitter, Marois and Couillard are being quite aggressive but no clear advantage for either.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a roundup from Le Devoir. I'll see what the reviews are tomorrow, but I don't think the trajectory changed.

[RogueBeaver]

I noted on Twitter that PKP has been this campaign's Payette in terms of intraparty damage. Fist pump as Yvette.