Ontario 2014 (June 12th) (user search)
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Author Topic: Ontario 2014 (June 12th)  (Read 70906 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #150 on: June 01, 2014, 09:40:01 PM »
10 personal questions for the leaders.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #151 on: June 01, 2014, 10:04:48 PM »
I'm not even gonna link to Siddiqui's insane column.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #152 on: June 01, 2014, 10:39:33 PM »
About endorsements: only suspense is Globe. They've been hitting strong NOTA notes.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #153 on: June 02, 2014, 06:54:53 AM »
« Edited: June 02, 2014, 04:08:34 PM by RogueBeaver »
CBC previews the debate.

Abacus out: 37L/35C/22N.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #154 on: June 02, 2014, 05:26:41 PM »
OLP.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #155 on: June 02, 2014, 05:44:12 PM »
Except in Ipsos. We'll see who's right next week. As for the result... would be like AB 2012 for me.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #156 on: June 02, 2014, 06:16:04 PM »
Ipsos: 38% EV still undecided before debate, with Grits and Dippers most likely to feel that way.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #157 on: June 02, 2014, 09:06:02 PM »
Hatman: On a related note, that Grenier/Breguet mini pissing match on Twitter. Tongue The pollsters themselves are of course keeping it cool...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #158 on: June 03, 2014, 07:25:51 AM »
Nanos: 38/31/24 OLP. NDP and OLP up 2 since last poll.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #159 on: June 03, 2014, 07:40:55 AM »
To state the obvious: certain pollster (s) will have a lot of egg on their face, given how consistently different their results have been. When in doubt I suspect the incumbent wins.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #160 on: June 03, 2014, 08:59:43 AM »
Nanos is always on PNP, so probably got publicity there. Others get publicity in the outlets that commission them - CTV, Star, Sun.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #161 on: June 03, 2014, 05:28:19 PM »
Livestreams.

http://theagenda.tvo.org/

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=68596&playlistId=1.1850323&binId=1.815892&playlistPageNum=1
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #162 on: June 03, 2014, 06:37:38 PM »
Agreed. Somehow she's windmilling more than Dithers.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #163 on: June 03, 2014, 06:46:29 PM »
Who do you think's winning Hash? Anyways, I don't think anyone moved the needle.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #164 on: June 03, 2014, 07:09:42 PM »
I think we can all agree that the stylistic loser was Wynne, based on hand movement alone.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #165 on: June 03, 2014, 08:25:57 PM »
Ipsos debate panel on who won: 36% Hudak, 30% Wynne, 26% Horwath.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #166 on: June 03, 2014, 09:59:26 PM »
Pundits are as mixed as the polls. Radwanski thinks that ethics segment might hurt given its prominence, Kinsella and Den Tandt think Hudak won, Star says Wynne was on defensive, everyone had slips.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #167 on: June 04, 2014, 01:46:59 PM »
Wynne: if Hudak wins the most seats I'll let him govern. Shades of Martin/Harper '04. Previously there'd been an internal debate about flexibility depending on how large said hypothetical PC plurality is.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #168 on: June 05, 2014, 08:06:06 PM »
RCMP interviewed McGuinty in April, Citizen found out today. Shades of income trusts, though it won't move the needle.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #169 on: June 06, 2014, 08:05:00 AM »
Wonder if that continues. Maybe Ipsos ain't an outlier after all...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #170 on: June 06, 2014, 08:54:09 AM »
Graves says the Grit 905 lead has shrunk in his writeup, though they're still up 7.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #171 on: June 06, 2014, 11:32:26 AM »
Oops. Confused GTA w/905, as I did on Twitter.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #172 on: June 06, 2014, 01:49:47 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2014, 05:27:43 PM by RogueBeaver »
Globe endorses a Tory minority.

Ipsos out: PC lead LV 40 (-1), OLP 32 (+3), NDP 23 (-2). At this rate looks like a Grit government.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #173 on: June 06, 2014, 06:54:39 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2014, 06:57:12 PM by RogueBeaver »
LV is 40 (-1), 32 (+3), 23 (-2) PC. So if they're right, less Hudak bleeding than strategic voting. Meanwhile EKOS shows the opposite trend. FWIW John Wright predicted a PC win on Twitter, said next week will determine minority or majority.

My own guess is a Grit government, as I said earlier. Or if Ipsos LV is right, perhaps a squeaker Tory minority like Harper '06.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #174 on: June 06, 2014, 07:01:28 PM »
Another Alberta. Sigh.
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