Oh, Obama gets a bump of some sort (predicting actual numbers is rather difficult). And then it'll go away.
In the end, barring a major war or something, Obama's re-election is all about the economy, and if bad, whether the country trusts the Republican to run things again, remembering Bush. Since the economy will be bad, the key question is really the latter. Just how bad the economy feels to the ordinary American does impact how much weight is given the second question, so you can't ignore the first question.
