TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,987
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2016, 03:05:25 PM » |
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« Edited: October 15, 2016, 03:10:58 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »
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McMullin is almost certainly going to carry Jefferson County and Madison County. He has a shot in Franklin County, Bear Lake County and Caribou County as well. McMullin's strongest county might very well be Madison County, which is very young and filled with university employees, the two Mormon constituencies which are the most anti-Trump, which is why Trump only won 7% of the vote in the GOP primary.
Madison County is unique in that there are loads of ticket-splitting Mormon Republicans, another indication that Trump will really struggle here. Here is an example:
Madison County 2008
McCain 85.2%
Obama 12.5%
Madison County 2010
Otter 61.4%
Allred 33.6%
Madison County 2014
Otter 68.5%
Balukoff 21.7%
LDS Democratic candidates tend to perform relatively well in Madison County relative to their performance in other ultra-LDS counties in Idaho. It's almost always the most Republican county in Idaho in presidential years but it often bucks this trend during statewide races. I'd wager that his is indicative of McMullin strength. Anyone who's willing to vote for a LDS Democrat is going to be very keen on embracing McMullin or, perhaps, Hillary.
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