Breaking: Tom Harkin to retire

[DrScholl]

The GOP nomination belongs to Steve King, the only real question is who will be the Democrat to face him.

[DrScholl]

I really don't think we should take for granted that this Tea Party phenomenon of nominating radical loudmouths over mainstream establishment types will continue. Otherwise, we'll get caught napping in the same situation Republicans were the last two cycles.  

Steve King represents Western Iowa, which is where the bulk of the primary electorate will come from. Rather the Tea Party is relevant or not, he has a regional advantage in the primary.

[DrScholl]

Latham would do better than King, but still lose in the end, unless the Democrat was completely incompetent. Latham can't beat Steve King in the primary, anyway, so....

People like Heather Wilson and Tommy Thompson supposedly had the same advantages, yet they lost in the end. Don't automatically assume that anything that relates to a candidate's previous races is a leg up in other elections. Edited for clarity.

[DrScholl]

Latham would do better than King, but still lose in the end, unless the Democrat was completely incompetent.

Then says...

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Can't make this stuff up.

Iowa has a Democratic lean, Obama won it twice and Republicans have only won it's electoral votes once in 20 years, I just don't think a competent Democrat would lose. I didn't use the word "next" after as if anything was guaranteed, I just stated an opinion based on the lean of the state.

The assumptions I'm talking about are ones that say that because a candidate won another office in a previous election, that the candidate must be a certain winner for other offices. Just because Latham got close in Polk County in a house race, doesn't mean that he's achieve the same number statewide.

[DrScholl]

Look, tilts can hold up and sometimes they don't, but in open seats tilt can sometimes be the predominate factor. Just because Latham won an even house seat (which has never been one totally unwinnable for a Republican) doesn't mean that he's guaranteed to win statewide. It may bizarre to some, but Democrats do have a very good chance at retaining this seat even if Latham does run. Grassley is an incumbent and a porker to boot, so his getting re-elected isn't so much about partisanship as it is incumbency.

I've never said anything about Republican tilts not holding up, unless it relates to 2010-like numbers, which were sometimes quite inflated for various factors in some states. Some people assumed wrongly that Wisconsin would flip in 2012 based on 2010 and the recall results, that was not correct logic.