FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC (user search)
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  FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC  (Read 6254 times)
DrScholl
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Posts: 18,355
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
« on: September 08, 2016, 02:43:37 PM »
Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.
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DrScholl
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Posts: 18,355
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Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2016, 03:18:57 PM »
Quote from: LittleBigOctopus on September 08, 2016, 03:12:35 PM
Quote from: HillOfANight on September 08, 2016, 02:52:48 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on September 08, 2016, 02:43:37 PM
Considering that Quinnipiac never produces results that are overly Democratic, these are good results.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/773962753778323456
Harry Enten of 538 noted that the racial weighting seems a bit funky. 64% white, vs 71% in 2012.

I played around in Excel, and matching 2012's racial demographics is a 1 point Trump lead, and assuming 70% is a tie.

Nate Cohn (Upshot NYT) agrees:

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So shell we unskew it like CNN? Invisible Obama taught me, that demographical unskewing is not really an unskewing. Right, Invisible Obama? Smiley

Quote from: Invisible Obama on September 06, 2016, 06:04:49 PM
With that said, unskewing was totally based on the concept of party ID and nothing else. If you are talking about the actual demographics of the election, then that is where polls can end up being wrong. I'm talking about what Gallup did when they assumed that the 2012 electorate would look like 2000. It has nothing to do with party and everything to do with demographics.

Let's do it! Or does it apply to Trump friendly polls ONLY? Smiley

You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.
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DrScholl
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*****
Posts: 18,355
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2016, 03:27:47 PM »
Quote from: LittleBigOctopus on September 08, 2016, 03:22:18 PM
Quote from: Invisible Obama on September 08, 2016, 03:18:57 PM
You really should learn how to spell, it shall, not shell. Better yet, just go away and never post again.
Will you be consistent and unskew this poll? Smiley

The poll speaks for itself.
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