Internal pollster in Michigan: none of my polls have found Biden leading (user search)
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  Internal pollster in Michigan: none of my polls have found Biden leading (search mode)
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Author Topic: Internal pollster in Michigan: none of my polls have found Biden leading  (Read 903 times)
DrScholl
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« on: May 02, 2024, 04:42:08 PM »

If he's an independent pollster then who is he doing internals for? Internal polls are not independent.

I'd love to get access to this guy's personal social media to see what he posts. It probably would tell a story of bias.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,391
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2024, 04:45:47 PM »

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time



11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

If abortion was going to cost Trump this election, he'd already be trailing. People have forgotten about Dobbs. I don't think people should become used to abortion being illegal in half the country, but that is exactly what has happened. The only thing that can save Biden is a ceasefire that lasts, and if that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save Democrats is a different nominee.

What you fail to understand is that polls are not real life. Trump can't be declared President based off of polling, he would actually have to win the election. And as we have seen over the past two years Republicans have been heavily overestimated in polling. Abortion wasn't supposed to matter in 2022 yet it did.
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