Most polls are showing AZ less strongly Bush than in 2000 but still highly likley to go for "W" in November.
Yes, they do all show Bush winning there... as I said. But I'm not sure what "most polls" you're talking about. Since April only one poll (out of about 5) shows him with greater than a 5% lead... and that was in a 3-way matchup; in that same poll Bush was only up 4% head-to-head (though the 3-way may be more correct, since Nader has gained ballot access in AZ). Well respected Public Opinion Strategies, in fact, also showed it only a 3% Bush lead in AZ.
Anyway, yes, I have no doubt that AZ will go to Bush. But, I just find these non-tossup tossups to be interesting. There are a lot of states grouped into the "tossup" category that are consistently polling in favor of one candidate. Check out the list, using the tossup criteria here on the Atlas:
Washington: 6 polls, 6-of-6 for Kerry. A non-tossup tossup.
Oregon: 6 polls, 3 Kerry, 2 Bush, 1 tie. A true tossup!
New Mexico: 2 polls, 1 Kerry, 1 Bush. A true tossup!
Minnesota: 5 polls, 5-of-5 for Kerry. A non-tossup tossup.
Iowa: 7 polls, 6-of-7 for Kerry. A non-tossup tossup.
Wisconsin: 6 polls, 4 Kerry, 2 Bush. Borderline tossup.
Michigan: 9 polls, 8 Kerry, 1 Bush. A non-tossup tossup.
Ohio: 7 polls, 3 Kerry, 4 Bush. A true tossup!
West Virginia: 6 polls, 2 Kerry, 3 Bush, 1 tie. A true tossup!
Pennsylvania: 8 polls, 6 Kerry, 2 Bush. A non-tossup tossup.
New Hampshire: 5 polls, 2 Kerry, 1 Bush, 2 ties. A true tossup!
Florida: 7 polls, 3 Kerry, 4 Bush. A true tossup!
Depending on Dave's formula, Arizona *MIGHT* now get tossed into the tossup pool. If so, it would be...
Arizona: 4 polls, 4 Bush. A non-tossup tossup.
So... my point is, of the 12 "tossups" (not including AZ) almost half of them (5) look like solid "leaners". If AZ now gets ruled a tossup, it's 6 of 13 that are solid "leaners". So, we've really only got about 7 true tossups, and given some of the nuances, we might not even have that. For example, Bush has been +5% and +7% in FL the last two polls... it may be truly "leaning" Bush. On the flip side, the one poll in NH that Bush led was the oldest; the most recent 4 have been ties or Kerry leads... it's clearly VERY close there, but it may be truly "leaning" Kerry. Similarly, Bush has led in 4 of the last 5 Ohio polls, with that 5th being the dreaded LA Times poll... so, OH may be "lean" Bush.
Sure, of course all of these "slight leans" are still in play. The leader clearly only has, at best, a 3-5% lead... something easily surmountable by the trailing candidate if the news breaks his way and/or if he focuses his campaign on the state(s). But, as it stands, I see only four truly undecided tossup states... Oregon, Wisconsin, West Virginia and New Mexico. .. and even Wisconsin is debatable as Bush led in only the two least reliable polls while Kerry led in the rest.
Oh, and incidentally, the two non-tossup tossups that Bush takes (FL and OH) would give him 269 EVs. So, Kerry needs to pray for that heavy undecided break in his favor which seems so questionable, or he'd better do something. A tie goes to the incumbent, given the makeup of the House. Lucky for Kerry, he's got 4+ months and can also hope that some of Bush's poll numbers reflect the Reagan effect. Otherwise, as things stand now, he's toast. If he takes all of his non-tossup tossups PLUS all of the true tossups (WV, OR, WI and NM), he'll tie Bush at 269 EVs.
