Obama/Romney starts here

[Skill and Chance]

actually, Politico's map (minus AZ) is probably Mitt's ground floor - can't really see Mitt doing worse than 159 unless Obama pulls a cure for cancer out of his arse.

But, if everything goes to hell in a hand basket (recession, unemployment >10%, middle-east war sending gas prices >$5, etc...), Obama could be lucky to get 37 electoral votes.

...But, that's obviously not where the election stands today.

Any Democrat's (including Obama's) ground floor right now is about 46%-47% in a two-man race, whatever that means electorally, barring turnout collapse (a la 1988 or 1996, highly unlikely given their far superior turnout operations nowadays).  Republicans need to understand that will not change until the stench of Bush is gone from people's minds, at minimum (and probably much more).

The Republican's ground floor is probably around that this year, but is in general, a far weaker floor, and in many ways is close to collapse.

My estimation of the ground floors, ignoring campaign scandals:

1. Obama's floor: 10.5% Unemployment with job losses in October, $5 gas and a major Middle East problem

2. Romney's floor: 6.5% Unemployment, 750K new jobs in October 2012 and a major foreign policy success (think constitutional democracy in Syria)

[Skill and Chance]

If unemployment is down to 6.5%, Obama would also win back all of the Bill Clinton states and Texas (probably WV and AR first)

You're underestimating polarization since the 1990's.  Also, the no on Keystone probably takes Texas completely off the table for him regardless of demographics (but it helps enough in places like CO and FL that it was worth it IMO).  Conversely, Obama should hold NY, CA, and MA even in a 1932 situation. 

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my current state of the race:

I don't believe the polls in OH, NC and FL.

[Skill and Chance]

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.

The general perception is that the country is on the upswing, albeit from a very deep trough.  We are weathering Europe better than virtually any of the economic forecasts indicated (notice that the market is actually up this week).  Unemployment has been declining for months now and the state of foreign affairs is much less tumultuous than this time last year.  Think Reagan 1983-84, but with the bottom for Obama in October instead of February.

[Skill and Chance]

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.

The general perception is that the country is on the upswing, albeit from a very deep trough.  We are weathering Europe better than virtually any of the economic forecasts indicated (notice that the market is actually up this week).  Unemployment has been declining for months now and the state of foreign affairs is much less tumultuous than this time last year.  Think Reagan 1983-84, but with the bottom for Obama in October instead of February.

Weathering Europe? This is the calm before the storm, buddy.

You need to chill a bit.  The markets have now had over a year to price in Europe, and they don't seem particularly concerned.  There is an increasing sense that the global financial establishment is "ready for anything" after 2008.  Remember, there are both income and substitution effects in play here.  A decline in global incomes due to the deepening European recession does mean less money available for investment/job creation.  However, Europe's problems (and China's to a lesser extent) make the US look like a shining star by comparison.  The US can also expect to get a lot of international investment and jobs that would have otherwise gone to Europe and/or China over the next year.   

Look at 1946-60.  Europe was basically in continuous recession, but the US prospered greatly because they were the last industrial economy standing.

[Skill and Chance]

Your map is too generous for Obama, given that is based on if elections were held today.  Factors to look at, unemployed hovering around 8-10% from now until November 2012, the crisis in Europe with their debt, Iran's nuclear weapons, and gas prices could be $4-$5 a gallon this summer.   Along with Obama axing the Keystone pipeline permit.

Look at the SW in 2008 and 2010.  Democrats consistently overperformed the polls by 4-8 points in every race in CO, NV, NM and CA.  The are systematic underpolling issues at work here.  Romney needs to poll at or above 50% to be confident of a win in any of those states.  Right now CO and NV are polling as statistical ties.