Miles' Election Map Thread

[Skill and Chance]

With all 13 CDs!

Very interesting map.  It looks like the GOP map drawers may have underestimated the amount of demographic change in the Charlotte suburbs.  That district doesn't look bad midterm proof at all. 

It also looks like FOR performed almost exactly at 2008 McCain levels in the 13th?

[Skill and Chance]

Well, I'm a bit surprised here. I wasn't expecting south Charlotte to trend R. This kinda complicates my "NC-09 will be truly competitive within the next 10 years theory."

Romney's improvement seemed to radiate out from the South Park neighborhood, where I went to high school. South Park is a very wealthy area, so it makes sense that Romney would rebound there.

Generally speaking, Romney was a much better fit for south Charlotte than McCain. Romney's greater appeal coupled with Obama's overperformance there in 2008 made for a pretty noticeable Republican swing.

I was a bit disappointed with my own precinct, 114. If you look at the trend map, near the southern corner of the county, 114 is the light blue one directly on top the bright red precinct that looks like downward-facing crescent.

Despite swinging 20 points to Obama and voting Against Amendment 1, it trended about 4% Republican. Its pretty upper-middle class, though not nearly as wealthy as South Park, and heavily white, so Romney was a good candidate for the precinct.

For reference, here's how my precinct voted in the past:

2000: 66/34 Bush
2004: 67/32 Bush
2008: 57/42 McCain
2012: 61/38 Romney
Amendment 1: 53/47 Against

Romney did seem to overperform in most of the Southern educated suburb counties that were touted as big D trending areas in 2008.  The federal government areas of VA were the only real exception to this.  What was also interesting to me was the D trend in the rural South this time in areas removed from coal mining.

[Skill and Chance]

That's all very fascinating to me, Miles.  What do you think was behind the swing toward Obama in East NC?  It also looks like it was mainly a rural phenomenon save for Fayetteville... 

[Skill and Chance]

I really wonder what those counties in southwestern VA would look like if Hillary were on the ballot.

I wonder too. Personally - expect hodgepodge. Some counties (especially - after 2010) have, probably, gone Republican irreversibly, but there is no such almost universal "Appalachian hatred" of her, as is in Obama's case. Personally, i don't remember such heavy minority support and such rejection (almost visible hatred) on part of rural and southern whites, as in his case, during last 40 years i monitor US elections. It seems to me even Mondale vote in 1984 was "more balanced"

Yeah, I agree.

Hillary got over 80% in the primary in most of these counties. She'd be in a pretty strong position if those Democrats stuck with her in the general over the Republican.

What surprised me here was that relatively few people were willing to split there ticket for Kaine. Obama lost those counties 71/28; Kaine did only slightly better, as Allen won them 68/32.

If the pro-gun and somewhat pro-life Kaine couldnt do that much better than Obama in those counties, I dont see how Hillary could. 

Kaine got hurt by being on the same ticket as Obama.  If Hillary were at the top of the ticket I suspect Democrats would do a lot better in Appalachia.

Don't forget how popular the Clinton's were in Appalachia.  In 1996, Buchanan County was Bill Clinton's SECOND BEST county in the entire Commonwealth of Virginia, excluding super-Democratic cities like Richmond and Petersburg.

Maybe if Clinton had become president in 2008 these areas would still be voting Dem, but the realignment looks permanent now as long as coal is a national issue.  I don't doubt that Clinton/Warner or Clinton/Schweitzer would do better than Obama there, but it's a different electorate now.  You can't get 1996 back just by running a different candidate.  And Obama has shown that there isn't much need to try anyways...

[Skill and Chance]

If Landrieu won very narrowly in a runoff this cycle, would you expect her to only carry LA-02?