Skill and Chance
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« on: July 26, 2015, 05:40:53 PM » |
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Well, it really depends on which part of the GOP coalition is most likely to give out first:
Arizona: white retirees and anti-immigration activists (not mutually exclusive)
Idaho: Mormons and rural white Evangelicals
Texas: culturally Southern suburbs, rural white Evangelicals, fossil fuels, plus ~40% of Hispanics
Utah: Mormons (non-Mormons are 2:1 Dem in Utah), plus a bit of fossil fuels
I would favor Arizona, but some random issue could pull Utah Mormons to the center.
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