Arizona Supreme Court rules to uphold 1864 near total abortion ban

[Skill and Chance]

Let's discuss what else existed in medicine during the 1860's, shall we?

- It was still believed that the body was made up of four humors: phlegm, black bile, yellow bile, and blood.  The balance of these humors was believed to contribute to a person's health and mental stability. 

- The idea of germs and bacteria causing illness was radical and widely controversial. 

- We administered mercury and lead to treat illness. 

- We used "water therapy", where people suffering from mental illness were forcibly held underwater until they lost consciousness.  If they could be revived, it was believed they would be cured. 

Let's bring these things back while we're at it. 

Law kind of works the opposite way, though.  As in the further back you can go, the stronger your argument becomes.  My understanding is that there's a legal tradition that if 2 laws on the books conflict with each other, you defer to the older law as much as possible.  The argument appears to be that if the legislature wanted to explicitly repeal the older law, they could have, but they chose not to.  I'm guessing that's essentially what happened here? 

[Skill and Chance]

You can't say you support states rights on this issue and then say you're not happy with the ruling. They are not compatible. This is a direct result of states getting to do whatever they want after Roe fell.

While this is probably way out of line with majority opinion in Arizona, voters will be free to express that view in the upcoming referendum, which, let us remember, is something that's only available at the state level.  You can't overrule an act of Congress or the SCOTUS by referendum.

[Skill and Chance]

Funny how so many Republicans, despite touting their prolife record for years, have suddenly "moderated" their stance over the past couple years.

They got us into this mess, and now they claim they can get us out of it?? Please...

At some point, does the triangulation from Republicans like Kari Lake and Trump hurt their support and enthusiasm from the pro-life crowd?

The Trumpiest part of the party has always been more pro-choice than the median R.  This isn't new.  See also: Ron Johnson calling for abortion to be decided by referendum in Wisconsin, while Lindsey Graham supported a federal ban. 

[Skill and Chance]

Republicans control both AZ chambers by exactly one vote, so in theory they only need 2 libertarian types to do a deal here (knowing the Western states, it's probably a lot more than that), and if Democrats block it, that's on them. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1777822139325751409

We laugh, but older laws generally do get more deference in legal interpretation the longer they remain on the books.

[Skill and Chance]

Tbh, Im surprised there's an abortion law from 1864. 1964 maybe, but 19th century...

There was a big movement against it in the mid 19th century with advances in embryology and increasing legislative attention to "obscenity."  75% of states banned non-lifesaving abortions by the day the 14th Amendment was ratified, which is what made the legal reasoning in Roe so ridiculous. 

[Skill and Chance]

Well look what we have here…

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/10/arizona-republicans-against-state-abortion-ban

That's already one Republican in each chamber publicly opposed to the total ban.  This is clearly getting modified before the election.

[Skill and Chance]

Dems are giving away the store here and basically bailing out the GOP. The constitutional initiative was guaranteed to pass and the unenforced ban was going to be a great motivator for Dems. But of course they were fine completely taking it off the table.

I personally like it that Democrats aren’t playing a game of chicken with civil rights.

Agreed. Democrats showing again that they are the principled ones and the ones you can trust to actually govern.

Also, there has been zero indication that this debacle has even hurt Trump in Arizona.

This is true and quite interesting.  The Trump +4-6 polls in AZ have continued through the month of April with no deviation.