PPP: NE-2: trump +3

[Skill and Chance]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

[Skill and Chance]

Surprised by the sanguine reaction here.  TBH this poll result (Trump +3 in NE-02) is clearly in the "Republican version of 2008" camp.  It was Biden +6 in 2020, left of all the top tier swing states, and has basically zero rural influence.  This is entirely equivalent to the raft of nearly tied polls in Minnesota and Biden +3-5 polls in Virginia we have been seeing.

Those where Trump internals.

This wouldn’t be guaranteed lead to a Republican 08 but it could lead to a 269-269 tie

My point is that this is a 9 point swing right from 2020.  And from a polling outfit traditionally associated with Dems!

Yes, the most recent close MN and VA polls were Trump internals.  However, there have been non-partisan polls in both finding similar results in the recent past.  There was a Biden +2 Survey USA in MN earlier this year, for example. 

[Skill and Chance]

It makes almost no sense that NE-02 is swinging more to the right than NE-AL in this poll.

Not sure I believe this either, but it wouldn't be a terribly hard story to tell.  Farmers and ranchers benefit significantly from high inflation and high commodity prices while city and suburban dwellers are harmed by them.

[Skill and Chance]

If Trump wins NE-2, GA, NV & AZ and holds NC we have the dreaded 269-269 Tie.

But I highly doubt Trump would win NE-02 without winning WI and MI!  PA is different because it actually has NE level "everyone went to college" suburbs for Biden to gain in.  That's why this poll is concerning.