US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Smash255]

What is all of this "fairness" chat about in the context of one party having control of drawing the lines? When that happens you gerrymander in this day and age (unless you are Mitch Daniels in Indiana who likes to play Mr. Nice Guy).

Based off McHenry's hackish as all hell comments.  Basically according to McHenry, if its an extreme GOP Gerrymander its a "fair" map, and if its anything other than a heavy GOP gerrymander, its not fair.

[Smash255]

Obviously the GOP is going for it all, especially with the vote sinking with Price & Watt.   While Elmers certainly got safer, I would look at Cary & Apex.  Tons of New Yorkers (with more coming), and while Republican leaning, its not hardcore conservative.  Elmers is the type of Republican that make Republicans in the northeast scared.

[Smash255]

McHenry about 57-42 McCain.

The new 4th isn't even close to being another VRA district. I have it as 51% white, 29% black. Its just a Democratic vote sink thats roughly 70% Obama.

I projecting it at 69.6% Obama 29.6% McCain.

I'll take issue with the claim that isn't "even close to being another VRA district."  I reasonably expect Price to retire within the decade, and due to the inclusion of Duke, UNC, and, I believe, NCST, I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that a "person of color [other than peach]"  will win within the decade.

I have read lecture after lecture about how a 40% Black district is allegedly VRA compliant since it is probable that such a district would nominate a Black Democrat in the primary and that that Black Democrat would win the general. Why not 29% if it is probable to nominate a Black Democrat whom is likely to win the general?

The track record of such districts is heavily in the favor of whites. Don't kid yourself and pretend otherwise.

Given the fact that Ron Dellums won in such a Black minority, University dominated district it is not unreasonable to believe that such a coalition could form in the Triangle. The Black Obama beat the White Clinton badly in university dominated counties. That, too is part of the track record. Villification of Whites is a staple of modern campus life. It creates quirky political outcomes.

If its going to happen, it certainly has a better chance of happening in that district than other portions of the south.  However, it has nothing to do villification of whites are any of that right wing nonsense.  Obama won the district because he was seen as the more liberal candidate and appealed to the younger voters.   I certainly think someone who is black can win that district, but it will have much more to do with ideology and intellectualism than race.

[Smash255]

McHenry about 57-42 McCain.

The new 4th isn't even close to being another VRA district. I have it as 51% white, 29% black. Its just a Democratic vote sink that's roughly 70% Obama.

I projecting it at 69.6% Obama 29.6% McCain.

I'll take issue with the claim that isn't "even close to being another VRA district."  I reasonably expect Price to retire within the decade, and due to the inclusion of Duke, UNC, and, I believe, NCST, I don't think it is unreasonable to believe that a "person of color [other than peach]"  will win within the decade.

I have read lecture after lecture about how a 40% Black district is allegedly VRA compliant since it is probable that such a district would nominate a Black Democrat in the primary and that that Black Democrat would win the general. Why not 29% if it is probable to nominate a Black Democrat whom is likely to win the general?

The track record of such districts is heavily in the favor of whites. Don't kid yourself and pretend otherwise.

Given the fact that Ron Dellums won in such a Black minority, University dominated district it is not unreasonable to believe that such a coalition could form in the Triangle. The Black Obama beat the White Clinton badly in university dominated counties. That, too is part of the track record. Vilification of Whites is a staple of modern campus life. It creates quirky political outcomes.

If its going to happen, it certainly has a better chance of happening in that district than other portions of the south.  However, it has nothing to do vilification of whites are any of that right wing nonsense. 

You don't exactly buttress your claims about the lack of animosity towards Whites among the left by having as your tag the symbol of an anti-White racist organization that murdered police officers!

Imagine the outrage that would ensue had the clinched fist been the symbol of a White racist organization in the sixties that murdered police officers.

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The symbol in my sig is to support the Unions in Wisconsin being attacked by Walker & Koch.....